This is important I think in the light of Ferguson’s interview the other night. He was coming out with nostrums unsupported by his modeling (ref in one of the Taleb articles) and which seemed to be unlikely based on the evidence on the ground so far. Simply referring to one’s model is not adequate.

 

Comment on Ferguson:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e70eb32b16229792eb14836/1584458547530/ReviewOfFergusson.pdf

 

On R0 and fat tails (related to Ferguson critique):

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e2efaa2ff2cf27efbe8fc91/1580137123173/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Path.pdf

Guardian article from yesterday:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings

 

Happy reading,

 

larry

Dr L Brownstein

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