At 11:12 25/03/2020, Greg Dropkin wrote:
>explicitly, the unmitigated scenario, once again assuming the
>parameters are right and I've set this up correctly, is that on day
>136 (end of the 12 weeks) there would be 1.28m deaths (and not many
>after that). I can't tell you the age distribution of deaths, as the
>model is pooled - some day, maybe.

In terms of the number of deaths, one presumably does not need a
model, nor even a calculator, to get that sort of number for a 'very
worst case' scenario ('do absolutely nothing', wait for the entire UK
population to get infected') - given only a guesstimate of the CFR, I
can easily do it in my head ...

... given an estimated overall CFR of 1%, the UK would then see about
0.66 million deaths, so if one guessed an overall CFR of 2%, one
would get 1.32 million deaths, very close to your modelled figure.

Does your "unmitigated scenario" amount to something other than
taking absolutely no steps to restrict spread and waiting for
everyone to get infected?

As for the 'when', yesterday I did some very hasty, 'rough and
ready', simulations of totally unrestricted spread, and ended up with
figures about half of what you suggest - nearly all the population
infected by about Day 45 and hence (assuming 20days from infection to
death), the deaths nearly all occurring by about Day 65.  However,
since it was naive (and involving a good few assumptions and
simplifications), and done in haste, I'm going to try to check it
this afternoon before saying any more, or trying to claim that it is
even remotely correct.

Kind Regards,


John

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