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Huw, I was wondering myself. We do have data on the proportion of those with COVID19 with new upper respiratory tract symptoms (URI)=p(COVID19|URI)=0.18 (based on the NEJM report); if you assume P(cough) in general population~10%, and p(COVID19)~ 5% (but some models say it may be up to 50%), you get that P(URI|COVID19)=36%. These are really wild approximation at this point, I would say Hope all is well ben -----Original Message----- From: Evidence based health (EBH) [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Huw Llewelyn [hul2] Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2020 11:34 AM To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Probability of Covid-19 virus PCR +ve conditional on upper respiratory tract symptoms [Attention: This email came from an external source. Do not open attachments or click on links from unknown senders or unexpected emails.] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Dear All Does anyone know of data that suggest what proportion of those with new upper respiratory tract symptoms turned out to have a positive result on PCR for Covid-19? Huw Llewelyn ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pantycelyn yn agor mis Medi 2020. https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.aber.ac.uk/cy/accommodation/accommodation-options/catered/pantycelyn/__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!5YbfuJfydfaxAJlyn6dRux8U16QnbmWV0EnXK_j2qgDDqMO9hhmZ2y__3l6TtJw3fQ$ Pantycelyn opening September 2020. https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.aber.ac.uk/en/accommodation/accommodation-options/catered/pantycelyn/__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!5YbfuJfydfaxAJlyn6dRux8U16QnbmWV0EnXK_j2qgDDqMO9hhmZ2y__3l5ol56_og$ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prifysgol Aberystwyth https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.aber.ac.uk/cy/__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!5YbfuJfydfaxAJlyn6dRux8U16QnbmWV0EnXK_j2qgDDqMO9hhmZ2y__3l7VcGbTDw$ Prifysgol y Flwyddyn yng Nghymru - The Times & The Sunday Times 2020. Aberystwyth University https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!5YbfuJfydfaxAJlyn6dRux8U16QnbmWV0EnXK_j2qgDDqMO9hhmZ2y__3l4AeTsvNQ$ Welsh University of the Year - The Times & The Sunday Times 2020. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following link: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1__;!!Fou38LsQmgU!5YbfuJfydfaxAJlyn6dRux8U16QnbmWV0EnXK_j2qgDDqMO9hhmZ2y__3l6bPo1Yfw$ ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------ -SECURITY/CONFIDENTIALITY WARNING- This message and any attachments are intended solely for the individual or entity to which they are addressed. This communication may contain information that is privileged, confidential, or exempt from disclosure under applicable law (e.g., personal health information, research data, financial information). Because this e-mail has been sent without encryption, individuals other than the intended recipient may be able to view the information, forward it to others or tamper with the information without the knowledge or consent of the sender. If you are not the intended recipient, or the employee or person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, any dissemination, distribution or copying of the communication is strictly prohibited. If you received the communication in error, please notify the sender immediately by replying to this message and deleting the message and any accompanying files from your system. If, due to the security risks, you do not wish to receive further communications via e-mail, please reply to this message and inform the sender that you do not wish to receive further e-mail from the sender. (LCP301) ------------------------------------------------------------ ######################################################################## To unsubscribe from the EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH list, click the following link: https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH&A=1