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Juan, Jim and Ben

I think that we use both and I have been teaching this in the Oxford Handbook of Clinical Diagnosis for over 10 years. After arriving at a diagnosis and decision intuitively (System 1) with the patient in the clinic or ward round I dictate a structured letter for the secretary or summary to my assistant on a ward round giving a transparent reasoned explanation (System 2). 

If I cannot give such a reasoned explanation that agreed with my intuition I think again. I showed in my MD thesis 30 years ago that a surgeon’s ‘gut feeling’ alone (System 1) gave a ‘correct’ diagnosis for acute abdominal pain in just over 75% of cases and transparent reasoning alone based on data (System 2) was correct in just under 75% of cases. When they both agreed, the diagnosis was correct in just over 90%. When they disagreed it was just under 40%. 

If we use two independent processes (even the opinions of two doctors) there will be a degree of statistical independence and therefore greater predictive accuracy when both predictions are combined. However transparent reasoning will be more consistent and reliable for beginners even if less successful than expert gut feeling. I teach the students to start with the latter and ogress to doing both. However conventional teaching does not do this but in reality throws students into the water to sink or swim on the basics of guesswork that hopefully becomes expert intuition in due course. 

Huw






On 7 Jul 2018, at 16:52, Djulbegovic, Benjamin <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Indeed (and some authors argue that all our inferences are ultimately intuitive). But, the question is not so much that physicians (as all humans) rely on both analytical and intuitive processes. The problem is both type of these cognitive processes can be right or wrong. The real question is if we can identify type of situations where we would be better off to rely on intuition vs deliberative analysis (and vice verse).

ben

 

From: Evidence based health (EBH) [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Jim Walker
Sent: Saturday, July 07, 2018 4:53 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: EBM or GFBM "GutFeelingBasedMedicine"?

 


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I agree, Juan.

 

One of the challenges of medical practice (and education) is to use System 1 (intuition) and System 2 (deliberative, conscious thought) as they have evolved—synergistically. 

 

A primary problem with the intuition (System 1) of physicians (and other members of the patient’s care team) is that medical education addresses System 2 almost exclusively, leaving System 1 to develop catch-as-catch-can, resulting in most of the faux pas that System 2 zealots love to ridicule. If physicians were soccer players or piano players, we’d understand that all sophisticated practice is primarily System 1; we’d use System 2 primarily to refine System 1’s performance (and to support that performance in the small number of boundary situations encountered).

 

Cheers!



On Jul 7, 2018, at 6:27 AM, Juan Gérvas <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

 

It is time to stop the witch hunt on intuition, and see it for what it  is: a fast, automatic, subconscious processing style that can provide us  with very useful information that deliberate analysing can’t. We need  to accept that intuitive and analytic thinking should occur together,  and be weighed up against each other in difficult decision-making  situations.

-un saludo juan gérvas @JuanGrvas

 

 

2016-12-13 12:04 GMT+01:00 Juan Gérvas <[log in to unmask]>:

As psychologists have amply and repeatedly demonstrated, the judgments  and decisions of physicians (like those of other people) are based  largely on our intuitions (Daniel Kahneman’s System 1).1,2  We look for patterns, learn quick rules of thumb, base our confidence  on ease of retrieval and coherence (not always on accuracy),3  and may substitute easy (but less relevant) judgments for difficult  ones. We have limited capacities of attention and have trouble seeing  what we are not looking for,4 but we also tend to maintain coherence by ignoring or distorting information that does not support our initial hypotheses.5–7 Indeed, looking at the long catalogue of our biases,8 it is easy to forget that, mostly, we do quite well.
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0272989x16662643#ref-14

 

2016-12-10 11:30 GMT+01:00 Juan Gérvas <[log in to unmask]>:

Los presentimientos: importantes en el proceso diagnóstico en medicina general/de familia. Desde Mallorca (España).
From Majorca (Spain) to the world.
Gut feelings are important in the diagnostic process in general practice.

http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/12/e012847.full…

-un saludo juan gérvas

 

2016-09-16 17:03 GMT+02:00 Juan Gérvas <[log in to unmask]>:

Pérdida de peso, no venía "nunca", síntomas persistentes..."huelen a cáncer". "Olfato" médico general. Vía @ernestob
GP's gut feeling for cancer: a useful tool in diagnosing cancer. High predicting value increases if the GP is older.
http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/9/e012511.long

-un saludo juan gérvas @JuanGrvas

 

 

 

 


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