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Thanks Anthony. I was hoping that somebody with greater expertise than myself might feed my laziness by providing a Delphic ballpark estimate. In fact, I was hoping for several responses, showing how even Delphis differ! I guessed (a) 10 million people earn over £30k gross; their average income is £51k (b) 5 million ..... £41k. This gives an error range of £7b to £20b p.a.. as annual revenue from the Lifelong Learning Levy. I was pressed for time. For what it's worth (which is not very much), my offering to "i" is below. I'm interested to hear comments. But PLEASE do not respond to the whole list(s), as that will ruin my reputation as a troublemaker still further! JOHN BIBBY ==== Student Loans need replacing NOW: mega-fiascos need mega-proposals Radical proposals are needed to replace student loans. Warm words as in the recent Lords Report "Treating Students Fairly" and your editorial and articles (Richard Vaughan: "Degree of Failure", i, 11/6/2018, p.3) are not enough. https://inews.co.uk/opinion/todays-tuition-fee-headache-risks-becoming-tomorrows-debt-crisis/ https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeconaf/139/13902.htm The Lifelong Learning Levy (LLL) is a new radical proposal to replace Student Loans. It combines three principles: 1. Higher Education should be paid for by those who benefit from it 2. Everyone who benefits should pay - not just the younger generation 3. Those who are better off should pay more. The Lifelong Learning Levy will benefit education at all levels. It is essentially a surcharge on income tax so does not require a new infrastructure to implement - and we can get rid of the Student Loans Company. Everybody who earns more than £30,000 per year will pay an extra 9p in the pound with their income tax EXCEPT those who did not go to university. Student Fees will be massively lowered, and special rules will apply for overseas students and those who go overseas. All the details can be modified but the figues given will MORE THAN pay today's higher education costs. The Lifelong Learning Levy is far more progressive than today's system, and far fairer in its treatment of different generations. For that reason it will undobtedly encounter political opposition, especially from better-off oldies who benefitted from the days of free university education. I do not expect the Tories will support it - but it could be a winner for Corbyn's Labour! On Tue, Jun 12, 2018 at 11:56 AM, Anthony Staines <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > Dear John, > I did a similar exercise for Ireland a few years ago. Most revenue > authorities publish data on income tax receipts in income bands. So > you can see how much tax people at different income levels currently > pay. From those you can infer, modulo tax evasion and dodgy > accountants, what people earn. Even though you live in the biggest tax > haven in Europe, the people in these records. are the people who will > end up paying your proposed tax. > > You can then look at the graduate income premium by age, and guess the > graduate and non-graduate income distributions (crudely, but not > uselessly). Your best model may be a penny on NI, or whatever it's > called now, as this may be harder to evade than income tax. In either > case the Treasury produces, or used to produce, estimates before each > budget of what a 1p change in rates would yield. For what it's worth, > 4c in the euro on the Irish USC would pay for our current higher > education fees. Your fees are higher, so they will cost more to > replace. These estimates are crude, but they are pretty much what > governments currently use to do budgets. > > As to the impact of tax, what data there are suggest people are > willing to trade tax, given good political leadership, for better > public services. Whether this is possibel in England, as things are > now, I have no idea. > All the best, > Anthony Staines > -- > Anthony Staines, > Professor of Health Systems, School of Nursing and Human Sciences, > Dublin City University, Dublin 9, Ireland. > Tel:- +353 1 7007807. Mob:- +353 86 606 9713 > Web:- http://astaines.eu/ > > > On 12 June 2018 at 08:44, John Bibby <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > > Dear Nichola > > > > Please read my email. I was not seeking support for any political > project. > > I was genuinely seeking advice from experts on a statistical matter. > > > > Of about 10 responses so far received, nearly all commented on the > > politics, not on the statistics. So maybe people are more interested in > > politics after all? > > > > (Incidentally, I don't agree with your political points, but as you > dispute > > my right to discuss them I will not do so!) > > > > Thanks for writing. > > > > JOHN BIBBY > > > > > > ===== *Emails are generally written in a personal capacity - not on > behalf > > of any particular organisation.* > > * *York Bus Forum: *YBF meets in West Offices at 5.30pm on the 3rd > Tuesday > > of each month except August. Please put 19 June, 17 July and 19 > September. > > NB: September meeting (Julian Sturdy) will be on Wednesday 19th, not the > > 18th. Please get your friends to join - it's only a fiver! Details at > > *yorkbusforum.org/diary.html > > <http://yorkbusforum.org/diary.html> * > > > > On Mon, Jun 11, 2018 at 2:36 PM, Nicholas Beale < > [log in to unmask]> > > wrote: > > > >> I really don't think we should be canvassing support for political > >> projects on this list. > >> > >> But how anyone educated might think it could be a good idea to try to > >> drive graduates out of the UK by raising their tax rates to pretty well > the > >> highest in Europe is rather hard to understand. Every sensible country > >> tries to *attract* such people. > >> > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list [mailto: > >> [log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Bibby > >> Sent: 11 June 2018 10:36 > >> To: [log in to unmask] > >> Subject: Delphi Assistance needed. > >> > >> Can anyone help me please with the following estimate?: > >> > >> I need a ballpark figure of how much extra tax would be due if everybody > >> who earns over £30k has to pay an extra 9p in the £ income tax EXCEPT > those > >> who do not have a university education. > >> > >> This is to help with a "Higher Education Levy" proposal I am developing. > >> You can probably see where I am going. > >> > >> Thanks if you can help > >> > >> JOHN BIBBY > >> > >> PS. 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