Hi there,

No doubt Elon Musk is a showman, but maybe the new Class 8 concept vehicle is more than smoke and mirrors, so let us see what happens. Tesla is already producing battery powered cars, and Mercedes Benz has introduce a battery powered truck with a 26ton GVM (gross vehicle mass) rating in Europe.

Remember that these new energy sources are being driven (forgive the pun) by legislators to “reduce emissions”, and these bodies do not always concern themselves with the cost, or current practicalities of alternative energy sources, or the increased cost to the operators.

I agree with David Cebon’s summary below, and feel that diesel, or alternative liquid fuel, will be with us for some years to come.

I am ex the UK, but now resident in South Africa, and in our current economy such levels of technology to reduce emissions are well out the grasp of many of our operators, with a large proportion of our commercial vehicle fleet in excess of 10 years of age.

Our legislated exhaust emissions level is still at Euro II, but we are gradually being forced into higher Euro levels as newer technology trucks are introduced to the country, though the requisite fuel is not always available for these higher spec. engines.

It is going to be sometime before we see full electric, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in general use here in SA.

Rgds,

Hi David,

The expression smoke and mirrors comes to mind. Great marketing that is decidedly thin on technical basis.

Best regards

                Martin Flach

Tesla’s claims for its new electric truck require some scrutiny.  Tesla claims that the new truck will have a range of 800kms and an energy consumption of 1.25kWh/km.  Running 800km will therefore require 1000 kWh of energy: in practice a 1300 kWh battery.  Suitable lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles cost $150/kWh today and are expected to fall to $100/kWh by 2021.  This suggests a 2021 battery cost of $130,000: approximately equal to the current average price of new heavy truck in the US (in the Class 8 category).

The specific energy of lithium-ion batteries is 0.1 kWh/kg – 0.25 kWh/kg.  So the weight of a 1300 kWh battery will be between 5.2 and 13 tonnes.  A US Class 8 truck has a maximum gross weight of 36 tonnes, 8 tonnes less than the equivalent UK lorry.   In weight terms, US trucks are relatively inefficient by international standards.  US carriers must therefore use their maximum payload of 21 tonnes very effectively.  The weight of the battery in an electric truck is likely to constitute 25% to 60% of this available payload. Even after allowing for the absence of a fuel tank and lighter electric engine this payload penalty will deter many potential users…  A fleet operator might require 4 electric trucks to carry the same load as 3 diesel-powered vehicles.

Elon Musk promises that his electric truck “will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension”.  However, in the real world, a vehicle offering at most 3/4 of the payload for double the capital cost does not seem a very attractive proposition for the road freight industry.

David Cebon

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