Print

Print



Hi Everyone,
    "With the invention of telephone we lost the face and with email the voice" - annonymous.....therefore this message is tone neutral. This is an attempt to distinguish between perceptions (i.e. opinions) and evidence.

This is EBHC group and following rationality (that's the goal I guess), we should ideally give more weight to quantitative data than perceptions. I have attached a detailed report from CATO institute which focuses on Terrorism and Immigration risk analysis. It is a 28-page document. I hope you read and here is a quick take from the report.

A Perfect example of how we overestimate low probabilities and underestimate higher ones (Teaching moment).

Few interesting quantified facts from the paper (caution not alternative ones) :-)

"The chance of an American being murdered in a terrorist attack caused by a refugee is 1 in 3.64 billion per year.

The chance of being murdered in an attack committed by an illegal immigrant is an astronomical 1 in 10.9 billion per year.

By contrast, the chance of being murdered by a tourist on a B visa, the most common tourist visa, is 1 in 3.9 million per year. "

Should dying in an accident or local gun violence even be mentioned (maybe,  that is an ideal way of dying)?

An individual has a better odds of winning a lottery.  so if you like more money don't forget to buy a lottery ticket this weekend


Love it when we move from Evidence to "trust me moment" :-). Love it when we can't apply the critical appraisal skills in real life. Love it when we can't distinguish the quality of evidence or strength of recommendations. Seems like we cannot practice what we preach and is an elusive goal (guess, best if confined to text book and lectures only).  


Please do read the report and these are not my "opinions" but EVIDENCE - being a messenger :-)


Regards


Ambuj

PS: Also, feel free to hit delete if you do not want to read it.



On Thu, Feb 9, 2017 at 10:07 AM, Paul Elias Alexander <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
First let me apologize up front for I hold the greatest of respect for you all. A remarkable group of intellects in this evidence based forum. Technically brilliant people. Hugs, huge hugs, and more hugs, and love to everyone, first, for I fear you will not like what I am about to say. 

I am starting by saying I mean no disrespect. Douglas, as the lead of this evidence based exchange forum, has always been polite and respectful and I applaud him. Thank you Sir for allowing me to this point to be pat of this excellent group and under your guidance/facilitation. I did learn a lot!  

However, I support Sachin, Terry etc. Why? Because they know something is wrong, terribly wrong, and something must be done and it is embarrassing to read these exchanges. Lives are at stake now, and if you are only concerned about your next conference to meet your peers, and share knowledge that can be done electronically, in the meantime, as we customarily do, then we have a serious problem. 

I held back commenting and was not even going to comment, until I was about to rip the strands of hair out of my head reading the bias and misinformed discussion here. We are being hypocritical (at times hysterical) as researchers/academics for people seem to be against something without examining the evidence or pretending the facts do not exist. I, and many here, are being spoken for and I must stand up and say no, I do not agree. And I hope, you allow me to and you respect I can hold a completely different view on this. 

Sachin bravely touched on some critical issues and allow me to help crystallize the issue a bit more. 

So I ask you, look at the photo below. It is the Bataclan Theatre in France with the recent attack by radical muslim terrorists. 130 were savagely killed. I have only shared one photo that is decent enough for the forum. The others are beyound belief. You did not see these photos in the main stream press in Europe, in France where it happened, or the US, Canada. The French govn deliberately held it from you. Why? Because they felt you could not stomach what the savages did. The nation may have broken at the sight and ousted the Hollande govn. You are being asked to deny what your eyes are seeing, what your ears are hearing, what your gut tells you in the west. 

This is a cleaned up image you did not see, and this is a sanitized portion, not the second floor:

Inline image

Here is one of the fathers (in red next) who went to the morgue to identify his son who died in that attack. I include the exact testimony of the father who saw him at the morgue, as he was testifying in the matter:

"The President of the Committee said, “the Committee is troubled by this information which has appeared nowhere [in the media]”, adding: “Thus, the father of one of the victims sent me a copy of a letter he sent to the investigating judge, which I quote in summary:
“On the causes of the death of my son A, at the forensic institute in Paris, I was told, and what a shock it was for me at that moment, they had cut off his testicles, had put them in his mouth, and he was disembowelled. 

“When I saw him behind glass, lying on a table, a white shroud covering it up to the neck, a psychologist was with me. He said: This is ‘the only presentable part, your son’s left profile.’ I found that he had no right eye. I made the remark; I was informed that they had punctured his eyes and sliced down the right side of his face, where there was a very large hematoma that we could all see"

Truth is I would want Trump or any leader of any nation, who believes based on the facts in front of them, to deny entry to our home, our nation, any one, who would threaten the safety of our people. I would want Trump, in time, if his examination reveals, and his intelligence community shows (with the security intelligence he has in front of him, that you do not), add additional nations that are a threat, to bar them too. Indefinitely if he has to. Not just the ones he has restricted already, but any others. From any nation. I would want all nations to do the same in that situation. Any nation has the right to safeguard its people and enforce its borders. Without borders, your nation no longer exists. 

Moreover, Trump has access to high level intel security information that you nor I have access to. He knows things you and I do not. I imagine his decisions are informed and based on that. 

To boycott the US is only going to hurt the research community, particularly due to a knee jerk ill informed mindset on this issue. You nor I or any of us here, have seen the security intelligence Trump is briefed with or is privy to. That he used to make his decision. 

Yes, I support Trump and I am against your boycott or plans of one.  That aside, I am an academic and scientist and I do support him. I am the same person 3 minutes ago when you started reading this. So please dont fling the keyboard or monitor. I just have a different opinion but I know you will react by banning me from this list. Thats fine. I would hope that we could learn from each other. 

Why do I support him? Because there is truth to what he is saying, whether you like it or not, whether you like how he says it, or what he is saying. Or him. They, want to harm us. They want us dead. They say it. They do it. You know what I mean. Today, it is about safety, nothing else matters without it, your money will not matter. 

Yes, one may argue Trump's language is at times clumsy, but step back and consider what Trump is trying to do here, and allow ourselves to step off of our self-righteous podiums for a moment to think. He does not want his nation to become Europe and the hell hole certain parts are now (no-go zones, crime infested) due to the rapes and stabbings and killings and terrorist attacks. I would not. I ask you, as a woman, try taking a walk through Sweden, certain parts when the sun goes down, by yourself. 

The fact is that the CIA and FBI and Homeland and NSA stated in 2015 under oath in congress, that the refugees turn up and give fake names and DOB etc. at point of processing. That becomes their new identity from there on. The US law enforcement said they could not screen the people for the had no background data to search. The terrorists have stated they will use the refugee system to enter the west, the US. And are doing it. They, the US authorities, have no idea, who is coming in.  And the policy makers and ministers etc. go home to their gated communities and armed guards. While we are vulnerable in the US. 

I ask you to consider that the restriction is temporary until they figure out how to screen the would be terrorists. There are ways to collaborate without being in person. We do it all the time. And no one here save a few, is discussing the merits of what President Trump is about. It is shocking. I am embarrassed and ashamed to read this. 

Now back to the Bataclan attack and photo above. In the Bataclan Theatre attack, 135 approx were killed by islamic muslim migrants/refugees/terrorists, thats a fact. But we have found out now that 2 of the 9 or so terrorists came into Europe as refugees, migrants, in the intake then. In the recent influx that Merkel took. thats 20%. 2 of 9. They used the refugee system to enter Europe, with fake Syrian passports and then we know what they did. How many in the US due to the ones that came in last year, in the 10K? Should this not concern us?  Canada is going to have a devastating catastrophic problem with this. Do you get it that terrorists, some very bad people, for their sick twisted psychopathy, are using the refugee migrant route into the west? They even attack our good soldiers and police, our last wall against societal malevolence. 

Following the Bataclan Theatre attack in France, we were not told the full story due to the nature of the attack. They did things to the patrons that are unspeakable. 7th century thinking. Did you know that when the morgue vans arrived at Bataclan Theatre to retrieve the dead bodies (approx 130 killed), they ran out and puked. Witnesses at the hearing said they vomited. The police and morgue people near fainted. They could not believe what they saw. People whose daily work is to handle death and gruesome deaths even, could not believe what they were seeing on the 2nd floor of the Bataclan. And the terrorist savages reserved their worst terror for the second floor and specifically, for the women. I suggest you read about this. But I will prep you. 

Did you know they used their long blades and machetes and disemboweled the patrons (it could have been you, any of you) on the second floor? Alive. They saved their 7th and 8th century barbarity for the second floor. People whose only crime was they went to that club for a drink, to dance, and particularly, in this madness, were not muslim. Imagine that. They kept them alive and spewed their intestines across the floor. Did you know they then used the blades to gorge out the eyes of the people as they lay there with intestines on the floor, dying in pain? The French government barred the news from relaying to you, anything about it, the details. They violently dug out and removed their eyes. Alive. Did you know they then cut out the males' testicles and stuffed into their mouths? Castrated them, alive. This is a fact. I speak only in fact. Approx 50 as per reports. In case you did not know so you can understand the animal we are dealing with. These untermensch. Did you know they then reserved the most brutal attacks for the women, they used their long blades and inserted and stabbed the females repeatedly into their vaginas as they lay there dying. Cut out their vaginas. They gutted the bowels, the eyes and genitals of the people. Innocent people. Why would they do this to innocent people? Can you imagine the pain and suffering of the women? He does not want that in America. Should he? 

They did unthinkable things. What they did was monstrous. How would you feel if you were that father or mother and the dead was your child?  It was so very gruesome. And the global main stream media further covered the truth up. Now that it has leaked out, why is the media still not telling you what took place at the Bataclan Theater? Because they do not want you to realize their deceit all along and the truth else you will turn on the leaderships for allowing this to come there and metastasize. 

Do you understand what we are facing and what the travel restriction is about? 

Swedish women, Belgium women, Danes, across Europe are warned now do not go out when it is dark else you will be gang raped by migrants. Their government is telling them now. Women in Europe, Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark, Britain etc. are being raped by gangs of refugee migrants. Daily. Each day European women are brutalized. Why? I remind you of Cologne, Germany. Why is the media and European governments covering this up and pretending, in so doing, leaving their nations at risk? Where have the Viking males gone in Europe, to defend their women? Where? How could they let their women be brutalized this way? 

Female genital mutilation (removal of the girls's clitoris with a dirty razor blade, awake) is dramatically increasing across Europe. And I fear in the USA and Canada. Why? We know why. We know who is doing this. Where are the protests against this? It carries with the ideology. Where are the feminists protesting against this barbarity on young girls, who often bleed out and die in the procedure? The pain. Awake. To benefit her husband? What barbarity. Where is the outcry on this brutality? 

Truth is, Europe is near finished. Over. There are some parts irreversible. Good sense will tell you that. Britain has the only chance now. To leave. For the rest, we on the outside, who have traveled there, know what has happened. We see it, we read about it. We get it. And we are scared of what is happening. We do not want it in the US. It is near over in Europe and I feel pain for the European people, for they are at daily risk and are being brutalized. Sweden and Belgium are the rape capitals of the world now, rape capitals, gang rapes of native women at the hands of migrants, refugees, north African migrants. Nightly. Its a fact. Where is that Viking Norse blood gone, that warrior who could defend his women now? Its a shame, gut wrenchingly painful as European women are being savaged now by migrants, refugees from North African, middle eastern nations. Its a fact. While Europeans party and go on pretending, the unthinkable is happening before our eyes. They are about to fall. The US has a chance. 

My participation in this thread now comes to an end as it may get me banned from this group and if it does, so be it. Then I do not belong here and I will not change my views. I am actually deeply offended by the tacit intimation or assumption that I and everyone here thinks one way. I will surprise you, we dont. 
 
And if I sober just one of you up to the truth, the reality, at least in an unbiased manner, to confront what is happening around us, truthfully, to stop the pretense, for your safety, not mines, but yours and your family, that of your children, then I will walk away not all lost. Among this highly technical bunch of people there is so much lack of understanding of the reality. Or maybe pretense. Maybe we know but we cope by pretending. I recognize the catastrophe unfolding. And we need help. We are scared and we thank Trump and wish other leaders will do same. And not just stop entrance, get those in, out. Bad high risk ones. 

It is entirely reasonable for the President or any national leader, of any nation, to want their border secured and their peoples safe. What is wrong with that? Let us stop this pretense that all is right in this. Let us stop denying what our eyes are seeing and our hearts and mind are telling us is happening. It is not ok anymore, to pretend and be silent.

'Normal' thinking Americans understand the threat and are scared. And the prior government did nothing about it and emboldened it. So the nation has has pivoted to Trump to fix it. Thats all. They saw in him what was lacking prior. Right or wrong. They decided. They want their safety and their borders enforced. Their nation. It is their nation. 

In case too you did not understand the extent of Trump's victory, and the repubs, it will take democrats 50 years to get back to power. The protests are because they know it. The corrupt media is not telling you how sweeping his victory was. 

Please take me off this listserve for clearly, I do not think like this. I do not buy into propaganda. What has been exchanged so far is propaganda. I want what is best for me and my family and all people. Forgive me for I want to see how his actions will help us, help the world, improve safety especially to our women. I am giving him the chance. I have a 'free' open mind and I think for myself. The facts are on his side. And yes, I know we do not want research and the like impacted, and it will not be. 

This is about safety now, mine and yours.  Safety for everyone, all over. To demean me and attack me will mean you are arguing against the facts. Our children's lives are at stake, our daughters. I am not worried about missing a conference or the impact of Trump on research. That will be just fine. I rather think President Trump will support research and advance it.  I am confident he will advance it even with full finding, but legitimate funding so the tax payer can get bag for the buck. I also think that in the time being, as this is addressed, that we can use all types of fora such as emails, teleconferences, skype, Zoom etc. to keep the collaborations ongoing. Most of what we do is electronic anyway and we do not need to come in person if for the time being, there is a safety security issue that someone is seeking to address. And you get caught up in. He has been in office 2 weeks. Give him a chance. Be reasonable in your reaction and stop letting the US, Canadian, European media and officials deceive you into pretending and closing your eyes or brain, into what we are facing, the barbarity we are confronting. 
 
Thats my two cents. I ask that you do not hate me, allow me the same respect and open mind I give you for your opinion on the issue. 



Best,






From: Sachin Dave <0000020c730cf796-dmarc-[log in to unmask]>
To: EVIDENCE-BASED-HEALTH@JISCMAIL.AC.UK
Sent: Wednesday, February 8, 2017 7:18 PM
Subject: Re: [EXTERNAL] Boycott Conferences in the US

Respecftully to all the great individuals and scientists on this EBM, my last few comments and will then end this conversation. Please show the same concerns and do something meaningful through this forum when Women are treated as third class citizens and discriminated in certain Muslim countries (cannot vote or drive and have to be acompanied by guardian men to freely move around), women who are and abducted and forced in to marriages, innocent civilians are slaughtered with mass killings in Middle East, Afghanistan, Europe, Africa, USA, Myanmar in name of religion. Enslavery of Women and Children with poor cooking methods who go hungry with scarce water resources are I believe are far more important Public Health issues than a still highly debated temporary travel ban imposed in USA. 




On Wednesday, February 8, 2017 5:03 AM, "Walker, John" <[log in to unmask]> wrote:


I also think it is not a debate that should be supressed. Even those who disagree with a boycott should be aware that it is almost certainly going to happen and if this spreads to reviewing US journals then we all need to know.

You cannot have a major power refuse access to academics, librarians and health practitioners from certain countries and expect the rest of the world to sit back and do nothing. It is the USA who have created this problem and we should not attack those who raise this issue (and it is no good complaining that politics should not be discussed on this list and then raise you own political points).
Regards, John Walker
Assistant Information Librarian, UK.

Date:    Tue, 7 Feb 2017 00:14:49 +0000
From:    Sachin Dave <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: [EXTERNAL] Boycott Conferences in the US

Please stop using Evidence Based Health for your personal political agenda. Period. Did you plan stopping presentations in the rest of the countries where Human Rights records are awful and shameful? Did you suggest you or your colleagues not go to present in China, Pakistan, Bangladesh ?
This type of propaganda does not belong here and is a big mud sling on the awesome academic community of USA wha have nothing to do with President Trump's policy.

    On Monday, February 6, 2017 5:01 PM, Juan Gérvas <[log in to unmask]> wrote:


-thanks, Terry, Alan, Glen, Ami, Aicken, Norman and David
-yes, the boycott is a highly political proposal, i know, but science (and EBM) so
-i took my time to send the link because my concerns and in fact a beg your pardon in case i offended any of you (silent colleagues included)
-i recognize that there are good reasons to join and to oppose the boycott proposal http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/scientists-urge-boycott-us-meetings
-but we cannot ignore "the world", we are not object but subject so we need to react in front of something that “...fundamentally disrupts the ability of universities and academics to contribute to research and education. It’s going back to an era (reminiscent of) World War Two.” http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/academics-boycott-us-conferences-over-trump-travel-ban/news-story/11b17a7bce9c223f9fafb4c1dc9b69a4
-as a Canadian colleague, "I see little difference between the U.S.A. today and apartheid South Africa in terms of ethics and morals.” https://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2017/01/31/canadian-academics-boycott-us-conferences-over-trump-ban.html
-by the way, the boycott could go futher, to stop reviewing scientific articles in US-based journalshttps://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-protest-trump-order-with-boycotts-of-journals-conferences/
-un saludo juan gérvas @JuanGrvas

2017-02-06 22:51 GMT+01:00 Birnbaum, David <[log in to unmask]>:

Catherine, Ami and others make very valid points about this issue impacting specific colleagues as well as hampering essential international collaborations among all healthcare and biomedical science researchers, professional societies and journals, and humanitarian aid agencies.  That establishes a pragmatic reason for this topic to be within scope for discussion in this forum.  However, I suggest there is another fundamental aspect, as yet unmentioned, which gives standing to an important community within this forum - public health.  According to the 1997 Jakarta Declaration on Leading Health Promotion into the 21st Century, “The prerequisites for health are peace, shelter, education, social security, social relations, food, income, the empowerment of women, a stable eco-system, sustainable resource use, social justice, respect for human rights, and equity. Above all, poverty is the greatest threat to health.”  IMHO, this obliges us to invite discussion on evidence-informed best actions related to the current situation. David------------------------------ -David Birnbaum, PhD, MPHAdjunct ProfessorSchool of Population and Public HealthUniversity of British ColumbiaPrincipalApplied EpidemiologyBritish Columbia, Canada

“Any opinion expressed in this e-mail or any attached files are those of the individual and not necessarily those of Herefordshire Council, Herefordshire Clinical Commissioning Group (HCCG), Wye Valley NHS Trust or 2gether NHS Foundation Trust. You should be aware that Herefordshire Council, Herefordshire Clinical Commissioning Group (HCCG), Wye Valley NHS Trust & 2gether NHS Foundation Trust monitors its email service. This e-mail and any attached files are confidential and intended solely for the use of the addressee. This communication may contain material protected by law from being passed on. If you are not the intended recipient and have received this e-mail in error, you are advised that any use, dissemination, forwarding, printing or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please contact the sender immediately and destroy all copies of it.”





--
Ambuj Kumar, MD, MPH
727-481-2787