University of Edinburgh School of Mathematics and BioSS Date: Friday 28 October, 15:10pm Location: JCMB 5327 Speaker: Dr Carmen Armero, VaBar, Valencia Bayesian Research Group, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat de València Title: Bayesian survival and Longitudinal models: Friends forever Abstract: A Bayesian joint model for longitudinal and survival data is a joint distribution for a survival and for a longitudinal process as well as for all relevant sets of random effects, parameters and hyperparameters. Joint models allow to model longitudinal data with non-ignorable missing data mechanisms with the help of survival tools and to model survival models with internal time-dependent covariates with the help of longitudinal models. Joint models were introduced during the 1990s in HIV/AIDS and cancer studies and since then have been applied to a great variety of studies in epidemiological and biomedical areas. They have a great potential in environmental, agricultural and biological sciences where right now are not so extensively used. We introduce two Bayesian joint models for two different studies within the medical setting, one for a longitudinal analysis and one for a survival scenario. The longitudinal study is defined in terms of a linear mixed-effects model that accounts for heterogeneity between the subjects, serial correlation, and measurement error. Dropout is here modeled in terms of a survival model with competing risks and left truncation. The survival study uses an ordinal longitudinal marker modeled in terms of a proportional-odds cumulative logit model and a Cox proportional hazard model with left truncation for the time to the event of interest. -- There will be tea and coffee after the seminar in the Physics Common Room (4317). This seminar is a part of Maxwell Institute seminar series. You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.