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Please see below for details of our event next Thursday (5.30pm, 28th April, University of Strathclyde), organised jointly with the Scottish Branch of the IMA, where John Birkenhead will talk about the statistics and probability behind your car insurance premium. R users in Glasgow might also be interested in two talks on Monday 25th and Wednesday 27th April by Hadley Wickham, prominent R developer, Chief Scientist at RStudio and Adjunct Professor of Statistics at the University of Auckland. These talks are organised by the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Glasgow. Details here: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/mathematicsstatistics/events/?seriesID=1 Best wishes, RSS Glasgow Local Group committee [log in to unmask] https://sites.google.com/site/rssglasgow/events #################################### Thursday 28th April - Multivariate Models, Probabilities of Ruin & League Tables; so, are you paying too much for your Car Insurance? Jointly hosted with the Scottish Branch of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) Speaker: John Birkenhead, is an independent consulting actuary. The winner of the 2015 Finance Monthly Global Awards for UK Actuarial Services, he specialises in the quantification and communication of risk. He is a STEM Ambassador, a Careers Ambassador for the Actuarial Profession and is a sought-after speaker at schools. Time: 17:30-18:30, followed by drinks and nibbles. Place: Room LT908, Livingstone Tower, University of Strathclyde, G1 1XH. Registration: For catering purposes, it would be very helpful if you could register for the event at https://sites.google.com/site/rssglasgow/events Twitter: Join the discussion and post questions using the hashtag #RSSGlaPremium. Summary: I’m sure we’ve all had a bit of a groan when we receive our car insurance renewal premiums; typical questions which arise are: “How can the premium be so high when I’ve never had an accident?” “Why has the premium gone up when I have one more year’s no claims discount?” “Why won’t my current insurer price-match the cheapest quote I can obtain? I’m a good risk!” “I’ve had no claims this year, can I have my premium back?” “I’ve just obtained three penalty points for speeding but my renewal premium has gone down. Surely this is a mistake?” It’s not always as cut and dried as you might think and this talk will explain what is going on! We will examine the theoretical statistical basis of risk (multivariate probability distributions), EU regulations concerning theoretical “probabilities of ruin”, theoretical “customer lifetime value” models as well as seeing the theories in action with some realtime examples from price comparison websites. We will also look at forward pricing, statistical quirks in the data and some pricing anomalies, all explainable from the theoretical considerations. So, are you paying too much for your car insurance? Come and listen to the evidence for and against, given by an experienced and independent actuary (and car insurer payer!) deeply involved in insurer pricing, solvency and regulatory management of insurers and draw your own conclusion! #################################### Further information about Royal Statistical Society Glasgow Local Group: https://sites.google.com/site/rssglasgow/events Twitter: @RSSGlasgow1 You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.