THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP

 

Tuesday 13th October 2015 7:15 for 7:45

 

Large Lecture Theatre,

MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,

Chaucer Road, Cambridge, CB2 7EF

 

Fundamental Fallacies of Finance

 

Chris Rogers

Statistical Laboratory

 

Abstract: The Concise Oxford Dictionary defines a fallacy as "A mistaken belief esp. based on unsound argument", and the history and current practice of the finance industry provides egregious examples. This talk will fearlessly expose some of these, beat up the unsound arguments, and, unexpectedly, offer some practical suggestions on how to avoid such errors.

These suggestions are unlikely ever to be adopted, for reasons that will also be explained.

Speaker: Chris Rogers has held teaching positions at Queen Mary & Westfield College (University of London), the University College of Swansea and the University of Warwick. He was Professor of Probability in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath before taking up the Chair of Statistical Science in Cambridge in September 2002,

Chris works in the theory of probability and its applications, particularly in quantitative finance. His work in finance includes looking at aspects of interest rates, models of stochastic volatility, the behaviour of hedge funds and the modelling of liquidity.

Chris is a past or present editor of various journals including Finance & Stochastics and Mathematical Finance. Within Cambridge, he is the instigator of Cambridge Finance , and leads the Quantitative Finance Group in the Statistical Laboratory. Chris has consulted for a number of clients in the financial services industry, including the Cambridge-based hedge fund Cantab Capital Partners.

 

Annual General Meeting:  Chris's talk will be preceded by a brief Annual General Meeting.

 

Directions Chaucer Road is off Trumpington Road – if you are heading away from the city centre it is the first right after the junction with Brooklands Avenue. Number 15 is at the end on the left and is a large Victorian House with a more modern extension to its right. The entrance is in the porch located in the middle of the older section on the left as you come in and is accessed by ascending a few steps from the car park. Cars may be parked there.  The outside door will be locked at 7:45.

 

Arrivals after 7:45pm can gain admittance by contacting the secretary on 07761769436. A map showing the location of the unit is at http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/contact-us.

 

Provisional Next Meetings:  

16th November – Yoryos Lyratzopoulos (Cancer Epidemiology & Cancer Research-UK) on 'Variation in measures and markers of timeliness of diagnosis in cancer’.

8th February 2016 – Anthony Edwards (Gonville & Caius) on ‘My Fisher: Memories of R.A.Fisher by his last student’.   

10th March – Katie Saunders (Cambridge Centre for Health Services Research) on ‘Measuring Ethnicity in the NHS’.    

7th April – Ioanna Tachmazidou (Sanger Institute).    

28th April –  Lisa Pennells (Department of Public Health and Primary Care).

 

Supper: Some members eat before a talk at the University Centre meeting in the Granta Lounge at 5-45pm.All welcome!

Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, 15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;

telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801; E-mail [log in to unmask]

 

For security purposes could you please let Peter Watson know if you intend attending the talk.

Slides and .mp3 files of old talks: http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html