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Saying "95 out of every 100 times" is clearly a long-run statement - we do not mean EVERY 100 times i.e. 1-100 and 2-101 and 3-102 etc etc etc. Let's not sacrifice clarity on the altar of pedantry! JOHN BIBBY ==== Please note: 1. My other email also works: it is [log in to unmask] 2. Come to York next 17-18 June for BABITME conference on Middle East, WW1, etc.: please visit www.tinyurl.com/BABITME On 30 October 2015 at 16:29, Ali Sheikhi <[log in to unmask]> wrote: > Hi John, > > The first interpretation would be better, as you are talking about being > "confident". In your second interpretation, you are saying that if you > conduct the experiment 100 times, "95%" of the time the true parameter will > lie within the range - in general, that is not true! However, if you > conduct the experiment "many times" then you would expect that > approximately "95%" of the time your parameter will lie within the range. > > Hope that helps. > > Dr. Ali Sheikhi > Department of Mathematics and Statistics, > University of Limerick, > Limerick, IRELAND > > On Fri, Oct 30, 2015 at 12:29 PM, John Sorkin <[log in to unmask] > > wrote: > >> I would appreciate thoughts about the following two descriptions of a 95% >> CI: >> Call >> Send SMS >> Call from mobile >> Add to Skype >> You'll need Skype CreditFree via Skype >> >> For a given parameter X, a 95% CI round X is: >> 1) A range of values which we can say with 95% confidence contains the >> true value of the parameter. >> 2) A range of values constructed such that if an experiment is conducted >> 100 times, 95% of the time X will lie with the range. >> >> I would welcome comments of the above descriptions, and any better >> descriptions that you might have. >> >> Thank you, >> John >> >> John David Sorkin M.D., Ph.D. >> Professor of Medicine >> Chief, Biostatistics and Informatics >> University of Maryland School of Medicine Division of Gerontology and >> Geriatric Medicine >> Baltimore VA Medical Center >> 10 North Greene Street >> GRECC (BT/18/GR) >> Baltimore, MD 21201-1524 >> (Phone) 410-605-7119 >> (Fax) 410-605-7913 (Please call phone number above prior to faxing) >> >> >> *Confidentiality Statement:* >> >> This email message, including any attachments, is for the sole use of the >> intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privileged >> information. Any unauthorized use, disclosure or distribution is >> prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the >> sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message. >> You may leave the list at any time by sending the command >> >> SIGNOFF allstat >> >> to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank. >> > > You may leave the list at any time by sending the command > > SIGNOFF allstat > > to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank. > You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.