There seems to be a fair bit of speculation on the part of people who
have presumably not read the paper which gave rise to the statistics
being quoted by politicians. I believe that the paper is question
(full text) is probably this (2012) paper is:
http://jrs.sagepub.com/content/105/2/74.full
It was far from being 'Mickey Mouse' research, and many of the potential
covariates/factors were taken into account.
It does seem that a decades-old wheel that has been re-invented. I
was a junior hospital doctor in the 70s and 80s and it was
'well-recognised even then that the service being provided to patients
with serious illnesses admitted at weekends was far from ideal. The
main perceived problem then (and perhaps still now) was not so much the
lack of senior medical presence (although that was even worse then than
it is now), but the very poor (in some cases nearly non-existant)
availability of support services over the weekend. If a patient was
admitted after 5pm on a Friday evening it was often a seriously uphill
struggle to get even the most basic of investigations/tests (blood tests,
X-rays etc) done until the following Monday morning.
Kind Regards,
John
At 12:46 20/07/2015 +0100, Alix Naylor wrote:
The thing that most annoyed me
about this was that the report I read (on the bbc) stated that the
research that had come up with this, if I remember correctly it was
British journal of medical research (or similar), couldn't conclude that
this was only from being admitted on a Sunday and may be from other
factors.
This suggests the 'research' was barely anything more than comparing
proportions without even doing basic analysis on the presumably numerous
potential control variables.
What is even more ridiculous is they just compared Sunday admissions to
Wednesday, so they cant even conclude what they are concluding that
'being admitted at the weekend (actually no, just Sunday)gives a higher
chance of dying than being admitted during the week (no, just than on a
Wednesday).
I'm glad someone posted something on this as reading the article made me
furious!
Sent from my Windows Phone
From: Krys Kelly
Sent: 20/07/2015 12:07
To:
[log in to unmask]
Subject: NHS Weekend Working
The following is a quote from Jeremy Hunt's speech last week:
"You are 15% more likely to die if you are admitted on a Sunday
compared to being admitted on a Wednesday"
Presumably, if you are admitted at the weekend, you are sicker than
someone who is admitted on a Wednesday. Does anyone know who produced
this statistic and how? Has it been adjusted for covariates (e.g.
performance status)?
Krys Kelly
Plant Sciences
University of Cambridge
John
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