Summary
of the ERC CoG NOFEAR project (2014-2019)
With
an average toll of 80.000 deaths per year over the last decade,
earthquakes
remain one of the most dreadful geohazards. The advancement of
earthquake risk
assessment and forecasting methods (probability estimates that a
mainshock may
occur in terms of hypocentre location, magnitude and time) calls
for a sound
physical basis. The nucleation, propagation and arrest of an
earthquake rupture
results from the interplay of stress perturbations, micro- to
macro-scale
friction- and rupture-related processes and fault zone
geometrical complexity.
Most of the information about these parameters is out of reach
of seismic waves
and geophysical analysis. Here we aim at enhancing our
knowledge of
earthquake physics (from nucleation to arrest) by means
of a multidisciplinary
approach that includes:
1)
experiments to investigate earthquake nucleation by reproducing
crustal
(pressure, temperature, presence of fluids, stress
perturbations, etc.)
deformation conditions with the most powerful earthquake
simulator installed
worldwide (SHIVA);
2)
experiments to investigate rupture propagation on simulated
faults using
natural rocks and small-scale analogue models;
3)
field studies of exhumed seismogenic sources to quantify the
geometrical
complexity of natural fault zones;
4)
advanced numerical simulation techniques that will integrate the
above
information and allow up-scaling to natural faults. The
numerical models will
produce physically-based earthquake simulations that will be
compared with
high-resolution seismic data.
By reproducing
crustal deformation conditions (stress, temperature, fluid
pressures, etc.) in
the laboratory and by monitoring acoustic emissions, gases,
electromagnetic
waves, etc., produced by the rock samples during deformation,
a by-product of
our research will be the systematic investigation of
precursory phenomena
(seismic, chemical, and electromagnetic) associated to
earthquake nucleation
processes
-- ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Have a look at seismic faults in the lab.... plenty of friction melts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTfwJ3Elw5s .... or abrupt accelerations and instantaneous melting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-N38H5aicM&feature=related ************************************************************************* -- Giulio Di Toro Professor of Geology School of Earth, Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences The University of Manchester Williamson Building - Room 1.15 Oxford Road Manchester M13 9PL UNITED KINGDOM Tel. 0044 (0) 16130 66735 Website: www.seaes.manchester.ac.uk mail: [log in to unmask] ************************************************************************* “Go my sons, buy stout shoes, climb the mountains, search the valleys, the deserts, the sea shores, and the deep recess of the earth. Look for the various kinds of minerals, note their characters and mark their origin. Lastly, buy coal, build furnaces, observe and experiment without ceasing, for in this way and in no other will you arrive at knowledge of the nature and properties of things”. Petrus Severinus (Peder Soerensen) naturalist, philosopher and physician (1542-1602)