THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP

Thursday 26th March 2015 7:15 for 7:45

The Large Seminar Room, Institute of Public Health,

University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge, CB2 0SR

Blyth abandoned: sound science or flawed policy?

Richard Steward

Blyth Estuary Group

Abstract: In 2005 the Environment Agency published the ‘Blyth Estuary Strategy’ with the startling claim that our 400 year old Blyth river defences were ‘unsustainable’ and would be abandoned over the next 24 years. My talk will focus on the assumptions and modelling used to justify the abandonment and the climate change predictions that drive our Government’s destructive coastal policy.

Speaker: Richard was Technical Director and co-founder of a Hertfordshire based Electronics Company. He lived in Lowestoft at the time of the Great East Coast Flood of 1953 and retired to Walberswick, beside the Blyth Estuary, Suffolk in 1998.

Directions: (From Central Cambridge) Turn right off Hills Road into the Addenbrooke's site then turn left at the hospital roundabout onto Robinson Way. Follow Robinson Way until you see an access road on the left signed 'Forvie Site' (but note that the sign is on your right). Turn into the access road and follow signs - first to the Institute and then to the Large Seminar Room. There is ample car parking. The front doors will be locked at 7:45. Arrivals after 7:45pm can gain admittance by contacting the secretary on 07761769436.

Provisional Next Meetings:

7^th May – Donal McCarthy (RSPB).

13^th October – Chris Rogers (Statistical Laboratory).

November – Yoryos Lyratzopoulos (Department of Public Health and Primary Care).

8th February 2016 – Anthony Edwards (Gonville & Caius) on ‘My Fisher: Memories of R.A.Fisher by his last student’.

10^th March – Katie Saunders (Cambridge Centre for Health Services Research) on ‘Measuring Ethnicity in the NHS’.

Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before each meeting at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them.

Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2014-2015 session.

Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, 15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;

telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801; E-mail [log in to unmask]

Slides and .mp3 files of old talks: http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html

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Peter Watson

MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit

15 Chaucer Road

Cambridge

CB2 7EF

Direct line: +44 (0)1223 273712

Line (via reception): +44 (0)1223 355294 x801

Fax: +44 (0)1223 359062