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Dear Allstat subscribers, We are pleased to announce that the next meeting of the RSS Lancashire and Cumbria local group which will take place on Thursday 30th October 3.30pm – 5pm at Lancaster University (Room A54, Postgraduate Statistics Centre). For our seminar, we are pleased to welcome Professor Ian Pewlis from University of Manchester and Professor Roger Stern from the Statistical Services Centre, University of Reading. This is a session focussed on Statistics for International Development. The seminar will be followed by a wine reception in the Postgraduate Statistics Centre. We look forward to seeing you here in Lancaster. There is no need to register, but if you have any queries please contact Matt Nunes ([log in to unmask]) or Lisa Hampson ([log in to unmask]). Speaker: Ian Pewlis (University of Manchester) Title: Indian farmer suicides: is GM cotton to blame? Abstract: ========= Trends in the numbers of Indian farmers committing suicide have generated considerable media interest and have been linked with changes in farming practices, notably the introduction of genetically modified (GM) cotton seeds. This is one of the arguments used by anti-GM campaigners. The statistical basis for many of the assertions is, however, flimsy. My paper addresses questions about data sources and data quality, the statistical analysis of short time series, and causal inferences from observational and aggregate data. The balance of evidence does not support the asserted link between increases in farmer suicides resulting from growing GM cotton. Ian Plewis is Professor of Social Statistics at the University of Manchester, having previously worked at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies in London. His research interests are mostly in the measurement and explanation of change, especially using longitudinal data. Ian Plewis is Professor of Social Statistics at the University of Manchester, having previously worked at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies in London. His research interests are mostly in the measurement and explanation of change, especially using longitudinal data. Speaker: Roger Stern (University of Reading) Title: Statistics for development Abstract: ========= Statistical support is required for a wide range of development and research projects. Examples from Africa and beyond are described, particularly focusing on case studies in agriculture and climatology. Parallel efforts to improve and broaden the training of statisticians in Africa are also described, to facilitate more effective use of local resources. For further details of upcoming events in 2014, please see our website http://www.rss-lancashire.org.uk/events You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.