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An invitation to 'A Very Unlikely Event' Tuesday 4th November 2014, 4pm - 6pm (followed by a drinks reception) At the Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX www.statslife.org.uk/events/events-calendar/eventdetail/301/92/a-very-unlikely-event<http://www.statslife.org.uk/events/events-calendar/eventdetail/301/92/a-very-unlikely-event> How likely is it that the Royal Statistical Society would be running an event based on the ideas of a world famous Fantasy author? How likely is it that a Fantasy author would come up with an idea so important that it would inspire the Royal Statistical Society`s Quality Improvement Section to run this event? How likely is it that the author, Jasper Fforde`s, idea had not previously been thought up by the world`s statistical community, but nevertheless has the potential to transform both statistical thinking and business practice? The idea is Expectation Influenced Probability. Is this a Fantasy? Jasper Fforde`s fans know very well that in his worlds almost anything is possible. But this is the real world, isn't it? Can Expectation Influenced Probability really help provide explanation for events as diverse as the failures of Risk Analysis, and `Black Swan` events such as the Financial Crisis?.. & could it help stop them? Speakers Expectation Influenced Probability & How I Discovered It Jasper Fforde, author of the Thursday Next, Nursery Crime series, Shades of Grey, and Last Dragonslayer books. Planning for the Unexpected: Expectation Influenced Probability and the Prediction of Black Swans Professor Tony Bendell, academic, management consultant & trainer, and author of `Building Anti-Fragile Organisations; Risk, Opportunity and Governance in Turbulent Times` Gower July 2014. Let`s Play a Game... Roland Caulcutt, statistical consultant & trainer, and winner of the Greenfield Industrial Medal of the Royal Statistical Society. There will also be a panel discussion including sector experts. Book your place here: www.statslife.org.uk/events/events-calendar/eventdetail/301/92/a-very-unlikely-event<http://www.statslife.org.uk/events/events-calendar/eventdetail/301/92/a-very-unlikely-event> There is a fee of £25; students & fan club members £20. No charge for RSS Fellows. Paul Gentry Meetings & Conferences Manager The Royal Statistical Society 12 Errol Street, London, EC1Y 8LX Tel (44) 020 7614 3918X Switchboard (44) 020 7638 8998 Data | Evidence | Decisions www.rss.org.uk RSS 2015 Conference will take place in Exeter, 7-10 September. More information at www.rssconference.org.uk<http://www.rssconference.org.uk/> The RSS is a registered charity No. 306096 ______________________________________________________________________ This email has been scanned by the Symantec Email Security.cloud service. For more information please visit http://www.symanteccloud.com ______________________________________________________________________ You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.