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Dear Tali, as far as I know this is not an inconsistency because posterior probabilities surely depend on prior probabilities - and different partitioning of your model space likely goes along with different prior probabilities for single models. This may be easy to see if you imagine that per default priors are assumed to be flat. Without partitioning this means that each model within the space has a prior of 1/n with n being the number of models. When the space is partitioned, however, the priors are not assumed to be flat with respect to single models but with respect to the partitions. Consequently, the prior of a single model depends on the size of the partition it belongs to with lower priors for models in large partitions and higher priors for models in small partitions. Hope this helps, Thilo On Fri, 2014-07-04 at 06:40 +0100, Tali Bitan wrote: > Dear DCM experts > > While running RFX BMS analysis we have noticed some inconsistency. > The exceedance probability for individual model changes when adding a family partitioning comparison to the process. > Namely: when we run BMS on 16 models without family partitioning - model 11 is the winning model. However, when running BMS with the same data, while also testing for family partioning - suddenly model 14 is the winning model. > > My question is: why does family comparison affect the exceedance probability of individual models? > > I'd appreciate your help > Tali Bitan