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In the UK cycle sales have been stable for many years….but use is increasing….it’s just the poor monitoring in the UK. The peak year for cycle sales, in the UK, at 3.75m, was 2004 (Source: NatStats PRODCOM) since when sales have been pretty much stable at around 3.4m, plus or minus 3m. The Sky sponsored LSE study only looked at (if I recall) sales in the year 2007 (one of the plus years). In fact cycle sales climbed steadily from the mid-90’s to 2004, with a blip in 2001. That growth was reflected in DfT statistics until, somewhat ironically, 2004 (the year of peak sales) when usage fell by 6%, they claim. Never really got to the bottom of that one….though looks like it was a an unrecognised methodology change. Multiple ownership isn’t really a problem if surveys of cyclists aske the right questions: a survey of local cycle commuters in my area revealed an average ownership of two bikes per cyclist, with a maximum of six (notably one of these was female). Interesting to note that, if the cyclist owned a folder, the average was three bicycles. I would suggest this isn’t untypical of this area (Surrey). That suggests cyclists are becoming more sophisticated and functionally aware. I note also that, whilst “cycle to the station” plateaued here in 2008, the three years prior to that growth averaged around 15% per annum. I’m told, and I’ve seen, that isn’t untypical for this cycle use “market segment”. Bear in mind that, aside from demolishing an oversubscribed (by 100%) tin bike shelter, and replacement with a huge number of covered and CCTV secured cycle shelters, no improvements have ever been made to station access for cyclists (no cycle lanes, paths or signed routes (we spent years trying to persuade both the rail company and local authorities to put up signs to the cycle parking!) that growth rate represents the local “unconstrained” growth rate for the area. Growth plateaued simply because there was no longer any more cycle owner/rail commuters who wanted or could cycle to the station (pull out an marketing text book….it’s a basic market characteristic). I’d argue that the 15% growth rate is not untypical for the SE of England. As I mentioned above, I’d suggest the change in cycle owners buying habits is significant; cycle owners are becoming more sophisticated in the way they use a bicycle and what they use it for (in part driven by changes in the types of bicycles available from cycle retailers). Talking to the local bike shop owners, its cycle owners that have driven this, not the retailers themselves. Even our die hard high end mountain bike retailer now stocks (pretty expensive French) hot commuter bikes. In my study of cycle ownership I adopted a number of different estimation techniques to identify the scale of the UK’s cycle fleet. Based on these I’d suggest a figure of between 40 and 50 million bikes exist in the UK. The number of cycle owners is around 23.5m (based on data from the National Travel Survey). Again, local survey’s in Surrey confirm the regional picture, so at national and regional level these figures are probably within +/- 5%. To me the thing that undermines UK cycle use statistics is seen in the average distances cycled which, up to the time I last looked (2007) had continued to decline to less than 60km per year. For a number of previous years cycle use to the station had increased significantly. Assuming a 2,5km each way trip to the station, say 200 days of the year, then, for every additional person who cycled to the station 16 would have to stop cycling completely to “maintain the average”. That’s patently not the case, so how is it the average distance continued to decline (don’t forget this is following more than three years of very high cycle sales)? That inconsistency, for me, is a measure of the unreliability of many of the cycling statistics generated in the UK. That said I have noticed some big changes in cycles in use. When I first moved, as an avid mountain biker, to this area (in 1990) mountain bikes were very popular and there were many bike shops, selling mostly mountain bikes. But I noted a wide variety of people out on these, of all ages, including some for whom a mountain bike was completely the wrong bike. Whilst I suspect many ended up decorating garden sheds, quite a lot got converted into the (unsuitable) commuter bike. It looks like this ”asset overhang” has, in recent years, gone and some years ago there was a big increase in the “hot commuter” style of bike i.e., road frame and (700c) wheels, straight bars, mountain block and chain rings (albeit two chain rings rather than three). I see very few mountain bikes and hybrids in use or parked up as commuter bikes, either here in Surrey of in London. The last (post-Olympics) change has seen almost exponential growth of drop handlebar bikes…..the area is inundated, and not just on the weekend. This one I’m kinda sure is not typical of the UK market but, given the huge crowds out for the Tour de France, I’m wondering if there’s an ongoing shift to road sport cycling. Again, it would be interesting to survey cyclist (my survey was in 2010) to see whether there’s been a change in the number and types of cycle owned. Finally, and given the above, and knowing how the UK’s National Travel Survey work, I wouldn’t attach much credibility to the absolute data you see, even that quoted by the UK’s cycling organizations. That’s not to say it’s impossible to get something sensible out of the data; for instance, relative data may be in identifying trends (as long as the methodologies and sampling haven’t changed (see earlier comments). Far to much of the cycle counts done as part of local or national traffic census is inconsistently and discontinuously collected as part of poorly structured (often manual) surveys. Personally I feel the PRODCOM data, and changes in sales, may well be the most reliable indicator of the interest in, and use of, bicycles in the UK (particularly if certain companies would release the accompanying cycle segment data). Cheers John Meudell C.Eng, MIMechE From: Cycling and Society Research Group discussion list [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Kevin Ablitt Sent: 26 July 2014 18:33 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: Austroads report-forwarding On the contrary, as someone who works on the cycle repair trade, in my experience cycle use is definitely increasing in the UK. I am always being asked to resurrect a machine which has languished for a long while in a shed or garage. Suddenly the owner wants to start using it again for health or financial reasons. The picture re cycle sales and ownership is complicated by the phenomenon of multiple cycle ownership by some particularly enthusiastic cyclists ! Most days I secure an advertisement trade bike to a fence near my workshop, this means for about 30 years I have witnessed the constantly increasing number of commuters. Best wishes Kevin On 26 Jul 2014 18:24, "burton richard" <[log in to unmask]> wrote: Indeed, and cycle sales have been high in the UK, but cycle use does not appear to be increasing. On 26 July 2014 17:41, Oddy, Nicholas <[log in to unmask]> wrote: The Austroads report is typically disingenuous in using a statistic based on machine sales, I have always considered this a very questionable way of assessing uptake, let alone use. Its prominence is surely indicative of a level of desperation in the face of few other positive statistics being available? For a start, a bicycle is not a car, it requires less space and a lot less investment, a whole stud of bicycles can be kept in a domestic garage, along with a car, without there ever being any realistic prospect of the bicycles having more than occasional use. I suspect it might be statistically more valuable to plot new bicycle sales against another form of leisure/aspiration based consumer durable. Two that come to mind are bread and yogurt makers, in terms of sales-to-use correlation. There are further issues, of course, in terms of the nature of the use, which makes the sales-to-use correlation of yogurt and bread makers more reliable. If they are used, then there will be a commensurate decrease in consumption of commercially made bread and/or yogurt. Unfortunately, many bicycle sales are likely not to result in decreases in motor vehicle use, as many bicycles are sold for leisure activities over and above the owner's use of private motor cars...worse some will be sold that will increase the use of cars to shift the bicycle from the owner's home to wherever the leisure cycling activity is going to take place. Nicholas Oddy -----Original Message----- From: Cycling and Society Research Group discussion list on behalf of Dave Holladay Sent: Sat 26/07/2014 16:50 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: Austroads report-forwarding *Austroads report* Or register and download using the link that Simon B provided? Very interesting that the number of bikes sold has increased, with more bikes sold than cars, but mining the figures might reveal that there is a serious n+1 factor at work here. around 50% of households own a bike, but more of them are owning n+1, and that +1 is a high value machine which is rarely used perhaps? * **A further few studies?* Is there anything in that survey that might plot the demographics - I was pondering this only the other day on a similar cycling-related issue. The near 100% correllation of people posting threats to kill cyclists with their car, all young-ish women (blond - but not really relevant I suspect) and in probationary jobs, for a well paid career, in 'professions' where diplomacy and measured language are attributes to refine as you progress to promotion... If we understand this there is a clear piece of targetted road safety promotion to nail that group. I've just had a very dismissive response from the Confederation of Passenger Transport about developing guidelines and related policy for their members (ie bus & coach operators) on cycle carriage, although it is happening in some places, both formally and informally. For the Oxford Tube it looks to be around 3% of peak hour commuters. Kings Ferry's Bristol services also report a popularity of taking folding bikes on the coaches. The Lake District has 599 every 20 minutes, avoiding the A591. Perhaps a review can gain a picture of any financial benefits? The closure of London Bridge Station and diversion of thousands of commuters to Cannon Street, Blackfriars and Waterloo may be a similar intervention to the closures at St Pancras and Waterloo in the past that drove significant increases in cycle use. will this deliver a similar effect? How will the before/during/after be measurable? It starts in mid August. Dave Holladay 07 710 535 404 On 25/07/14 16:54, Katja Leyendecker wrote: > Same here, please! > > Kat > > Sent from my iPad > > On 25 Jul 2014, at 09:45, Gianni Rondinella > <[log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>> wrote: > >> I have trouble getting the download, can you send it to me directly? >> Thanks, >> Gianni >> >> *Gianni Rondinella >> *Investigador pre-doctoral // Ph.D. candidate/** >> TRANSyT - *Centro de Investigación del Transporte*/ >> Transport Research Centre/* >> Universidad Politécnica de Madrid* >> ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos >> c/ Prof. Aranguren s/n - 28040 Madrid >> www.transyt.upm.es <http://www.transyt.upm.es/> >> t: +34 91 336 6657 <tel:%2B34%2091%20336%206657> >> <http://www.transyt.upm.es/> >> >> >> >> On 25 July 2014 02:47, Simon P J Batterbury <[log in to unmask] >> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>> wrote: >> >> Austroads report >> <http://groups.google.com/group/freestyle-cyclists/t/cf9a65a5c5481042> >> >> *Chris Gxxx *Jul 24 11:32AM +0800 >> >> Austroads has just released National Cycling Strategy: >> Implementation Report 2013 >> (https://www.onlinepublications.austroads.com.au/items/AP-C93-14 >> but you have to register or log in) which evaluates the success >> of Australia's strategy to increase cycling. It's just over 5mb >> so I won't burden this email with an attachment but I can email >> it to anyone who wants it but has trouble getting a download. >> >> The document pretty well confirms participation points I've made >> at http://www.cycle-helmets.com/cycling-1985-2013.html, primarily >> that Australian cycling participation (percentage who cycled in >> the past week) fell from 17.8% in 2011 to 16.6% in 2013. I've >> calculated that 1.2% reduction to represent just over 300,000 >> fewer cyclists, which is why the media continues to be full of >> stories about how cycling is booming in Australia. >> >> The National Cycling Strategy aims to promote and increase >> cycling in Australia from 2011 to 2016 but a 1.2% reduction in >> the first half of the strategy suggests it's so far been an >> abject failure. The latest Austroads document maintains the theme >> of all official publications by not mentioning helmets, by far >> and away the main barrier to increased participation in this >> country. Actually, the word "helmet" is used once in the >> Austroads document but just in a bullet point referring to the >> recommendation by Queensland's parliamentary committee for a >> relaxation of helmet laws - that tiny sniff of hope that was >> snuffed out by Queensland's Transport Minister. >> >> Apart from that, the Austroads report has 52 pages with some >> interesting data re all sorts of cycling issues in different states. >> >> Cheers! >> Chris xxx__ >> >>