Print

Print


 
The West was probably encouraged by the fact that China, inthe recent UN vote on Russia's (re) occupation of the Crimea, failed to voteagainst Russia but merely abstained. Russia and China have not always beenclose. China was treated quite roughly by the 'Western' powers, from theBritish Opium Wars of the 1840s through the suppression of the Boxers in 1890sto Japan's incursions of the 1930s. Then we have the Chinese Civil war, theupshot of which was the loss of Taiwan; a region China would like to recover.What is less well known is the inroads made by Russia as it colonised its FarEast, and bumped up against regions governed by satellites of China, and evenChinese territory itself. Google 'Treaty of Aigun' and '64 villages China' and youwill see how China lost territory to its north and east, between Manchuria andSakhalin. At that time, 1900, China had 407m people; the Russian Empire had134m.
 
Move on a century and we find Russia with 142m people, in16.4 million sq km; China has 1,388m people, in 9.56 million sq km. China'spopulation is, despite their One Child Policy, rising at 6m a year; Russia's isfalling at 0.2m a year. Russians are leaving their Far East in droves; it'sreally not the nicest part of the country to live in, if you can get to Moscowor St Petersburg instead. Because of the One Child Policy, China has a genderimbalance meaning it has 1.08 males for every 1 female - 8% of its bachelors,some 50m, aren't going to find a partner. Will they even find food for their partnerto cook? China, with its increasing meat consumption, may run short of grainproduction, whilst Russia has a land surplus.
 
Societies can react to such an imbalance in three ways. 1) Turn to criminality, 2) Emigrate, 3)Fight a war. Wars are great at dealing with surplus bachelors, as well as beingpretty good economic stimulants. Criminality may be unlikely in China. Thereare many signs in the hutongs and suburbs of Beijing, translated helpfully intoEnglish (I know all of 2 words of Chinese); some amusing, some interesting. Forexample the sign that says "All Sorts of Crime Will Be SeverlyPuneshid", next to one that informs all new foreign residents that theymust report to the local police station within 48 hours of arrival. Go out intothe N W suburbs of near the Fragrant Hills and you may see a school, withregimented 8 year olds in 2008 all lined up neatly, militarily, in the schoolyard, under a sign reading "Nation, Army, Honor". Of the 100 or soschoolboys there, 8 will never marry. Unless they emigrate, but many othercountries are becoming less open to immigration. How many will end up fightingto recover China's lost Manchurian lands? 

 
In 1984 you could book a package holiday in the USSR thatincluded 6 days trundling across Russia from Moscow to Khabarovsk on the TransSiberian railway. Standing on the banks of the frozen Amur River in January, itwas interesting to reflect that you were just 20 miles, about a days walk, fromthe Chinese border. I'm not sure if they still offer the same trip today, but Ireally wouldn't book too far ahead if they do, not beyond 2017 anyway......

 

Dr Hillary J. Shaw
 Director and Senior Research Consultant
Shaw Food Solutions
Newport
Shropshire
TF10 8NB
www.fooddeserts.org