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[log in to unmask]" type="cite"> good forumers,

passing following on from David Wasdell. It comes ironically on the back of all the rather overheated exchanges earlier this year, around Arctic methane and geo-engineering. .  Even so, I'm sure, coming as it does ffrom Apollo-Gaia it's well worth closer scrutiny.

cheers,
mark
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From: Wasdell <[log in to unmask]>
Organization: Meridian
Date: Mon, 22 Jul 2013 17:01:00 +0100
To: "Mark Levene ([log in to unmask])" <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Arctic Dynamics - Urgent report from the Apollo-Gaia Project

Dear Mark,



Climate Change in the Arctic is moving faster than anywhere else on earth.  This new over-view report from the Apollo-Gaia Project is based on observational data, analysis of feedback dynamics and trend projection.  Implications and consequences of Arctic change are spelled out.  The report is released in two formats, a web-linked PDF and a pair of supporting video presentations.  It can be found here: http://www.apollo-gaia.org/ArcticDynamics.html    



The Arctic Dynamics Report is a must-read, must-view, must-share resource for everyone concerned with climate change.  Please help to ensure its widest possible circulation.



To whet your appetite, the text of the Executive Summary is appended to this e-mail.



With best wishes,



David.

PS: Did you see the article in New Scientist by Fred Pearce (page 42f) ŒYouthquake¹ regarding shifting age structure of countries and the comment about this fuelling conflict - Report by Henrik Urdal for the UN last year.



David Wasdell

Director

Apollo-Gaia Project

(Hosted by the Unit for Research into Changing Institutions)

Meridian House

115 Poplar High Street

London E14 0AE

Tel: +44 (0) 207 987 3600

Fax: +44 (0) 207 515 8627

e-mail: [log in to unmask]

web: www.apollo-gaia.org <http://www.apollo-gaia.org/>





Executive Summary



Strong and interactive feedback processes are driving change in the Arctic climate faster than anywhere else on the planet.



This over-view of Arctic Dynamics is firmly grounded in observational data (in sharp contrast with computer models which are struggling to play catch-up).  Four multi-decadal parameters are presented dealing with:



·        Regional temperature change (in the context of global behaviour)

·        Area of floating sea ice

·        Volume (or mass) of floating sea ice

·        Change in the decadal rate of mass loss of the floating sea ice.



All show strongly non-linear behaviour consistent with feedback-driven amplification of the underlying forcing from anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.  Data-trend-analysis confirms that first occurrence of end of September ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean can be expected within the next three years.  From that point the ice-free window will widen rapidly as the feedback dynamics increase in power.



The second part of the analysis reviews a set of implications and consequences of rapid Arctic change:



·        Impact on the Tundra includes albedo feedback and release of CO2 and methane to the atmosphere.

·        Sea-bed release of methane adds to the Tundra feedback.

·        Exponential change in melt-rate of the Greenland ice-cap has major implications for change in sea-level around the world.

·        The accelerating disturbance of the jet-stream drives another energy feedback, disrupts weather patterns across the northern hemisphere and threatens food production from the grain belt over three continents.

·        Free from global dimming, which is temporally blocking temperature change in the planetary system as a whole, the Arctic offers a foretaste of global climate dynamics of the future.



Released on the Apollo-Gaia website as a PDF with comprehensive set of hyperlinked references, Arctic Dynamics is accompanied by a pair of professionally-produced video presentations.  Access the full report here: http://www.apollo-gaia.org/ArcticDynamics.html