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TORG is pleased to announce this week's Wednesday lunchtime seminar: "Investigating the reduction in fatal accidents in Great Britain from 2007-2010" Speaker: Louise Lloyd, A senior statistician in safety from the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) Location: Cassie 2.32 Time/Date: 17th April 2013, 13:00 - 15:00 About the seminar: The number of fatalities on British roads fell markedly from 2007 to 2010. This has clearly been "good news", but the reasons for this success had been poorly understood so there could be little confidence that the number would not begin to rise. The relevant datasets for the period from 2000 to 2010 have been analysed to investigate this major reduction, including a wide selection of exposure data. The decrease in overall traffic probably contributed, especially the large reduction in HGV traffic, and a fall in the number of young male drivers. The substantial increase in pedal cycling tended to lessen the overall reduction. Statistical models were developed to look at casualty trends and the effects of car secondary safety improvements. Improvements in vehicle safety made a vital contribution to increasing safety throughout the decade, but the reduction of overall fatalities between 2007 and 2010 was not directly related these improvements. The economic downturn from 2007 appears to have had a beneficial effect on driver behaviour, with less speeding and drink driving. The effect of weather on the fatality trend is less certain, but people may have driven more cautiously in the progressively colder winters since 2007. About the presenter: Louise is a Senior Statistician with TRL. She joined in 2005, after completing a Masters in Mathematics and Statistics at Warwick University. As a Chartered Statistician at TRL she employs a vast range of statistical techniques for many different projects, including cluster analysis on accident data, simulation on biomechanical data, experimental design for vehicle testing and analysis of survey and questionnaire data. Louise has much experience of handling data within Excel, SPSS, SAS and R and knowledge of specialist packages such as LogXact, AnswerTree and SPlus. She has also presented at many traffic related and statistical conferences, including the Behavioural Studies in Road Safety Seminar, the International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group conference and the Royal Statistical Society conference. She is currently studying for a PhD in graphical methods for large accident databases with Southampton University. Seminar Location: Please join us on Wednesday 17th April 2013 between 13.00 - 15.00 in Room 2.32, second floor, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Cassie Building, Claremont Road, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU The Cassie Building is building number 49 on the Campus Map and is about a 5-10 minute walk from Haymarket metro/bus interchange or Jesmond metro station, both of which are easily accessible from Newcastle Central station or Newcastle International Airport. Car parking in and around the University campus is limited, but Park and Ride options are available from seven metro stations within Newcastle - please see the Nexus website Metro Map for more details. Further information: The TORG seminars are intended to disseminate on-going research and encourage detailed discussions of a diverse range of transport topics in an informal environment - for further information on a specific seminar, please contact Dr. Dilum Dissanayake or Dr. Gareth Evans. The TORG seminars are part of a wider programme within the School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences all of which are free of charge and open for external guests to attend. Please let Miss Susan Partridge know if you wish to attend a TORG seminar to allow names of external guests to be noted. After the seminar, and where suitable content is available, we try to make the presentations available online, subject to our presenters giving their permission for us to do so. We look forward to seeing you. Dr D Dissanayake Lecturer in Transport Modelling Cassie 2.19 School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Newcastle University Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU Tel: 01912225718 Fax: 01912226502