Dear Allstat list members,

 

A reminder that the next meeting of the RSS Lancashire local group will take place 4 - 5pm on Thursday 24^th January at Lancaster University (Fylde Lecture Theatre 1, Fylde College).

 

For our seminar,  we are pleased to welcome Andrew Golightly from Newcastle University.  The seminar will be followed by a wine reception in the Postgraduate Statistics Centre.

 

We look forward to seeing you here in Lancaster. There is no need to register, but if you have any queries please contact Matt Nunes ([log in to unmask]) or Lisa Hampson ([log in to unmask]).

 

 

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Speaker:       Andrew Golightly (Newcastle University)

 

Title:              Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

 

Abstract:      We consider a spatio-temporal model to describe the spread of the Neolithic across Europe. The arrival time of farming at a collection of radiocarbon-dated sites is modelled by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront model. Our solution allows for uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit from the deterministic model and uses a spatial Gaussian process to smooth over any locally geographic anomalies in the data. The analysis makes inferences for the parameters of the wavefront model by using fast Gaussian process emulator approximations to the wavefront model at each site, and gives insights into the importance of spatial scale.

 

For further details of upcoming events in 2013, please see our website http://www.rss-lancashire.org.uk/home