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Just to back up Bob's comment... I did a bit of reading about this in advance of my session on risk and uncertainty at the Science Communication Conference in May. I then sent my mother off to translate some of the original statements for me (she can speak pretty good Italian; I can't). My reading of it is that - at best - the guys concerned made some injudicious statements about their levels of certainty. At different times they appear to have both underestimated and overestimated the public's ability to deal with the uncertainties of the situation. They had a genuinely difficult communication job that really mattered to normal people "in real time". They got it very wrong. The line I remember my mother digging up is that in this situation "no-one is without blame" (I forget the actual Italian phrase). A bad business all round. Dom From: psci-com: on public engagement with science [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Robert Ward Sent: 23 October 2012 14:29 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: [PSCI-COM] Communicating risk and uncertainty I think it is important to understand the details of this case, as there has been a lot of misreporting about it over the past 24 hours. The scientists were not jailed for failing to predict the earthquake in L'Aquila, but instead for failing, as members of the National Commission for Forecasting and Predicting Great Risks, to provide appropriate advice to the local population about the magnitude of the risks they faced. Indeed, it appears that some members of the Commission made inaccurate and irresponsible public statements about the risks at least partly in order to discredit an amateur who was predicting an imminent earthquake based on radon measurements. Whether or not the jail sentences were justified, I think it is difficult to conclude that the Commission members behaved in a faultless way. For those who are interested in the background to the case, I really commend this excellent news article from 'Nature' which was published last September: http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html Bob Ward Policy and Communications Director Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London School of Economics and Political Science Houghton Street London UK WC2A 2AE Tel. +44 (0) 20 7107 5413 Mob. +44 (0) 7811 320346 Web: http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham Twitter: @ret_ward From: psci-com: on public engagement with science [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Julie Clayton Sent: 23 October 2012 14:17 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: [PSCI-COM] Communicating risk and uncertainty What about weather forecasters and media companies who propagate premature reassurance about earthquakes, hurricanes, etc... Are they safe in Italy? Julie From: psci-com: on public engagement with science [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Alan Rogerson Sent: 23 October 2012 13:35 To: [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]> Subject: Re: [PSCI-COM] Communicating risk and uncertainty Well said, Dom, especially for those who live on the continent, This news is quite a shock for those of us used to the UK/USA legal systems, but in France and Italy for sure (and probably elsewhere in Europe) the law holds accountable not only scientists but business men, administrators and politicians etc. Anyone in a position of responsibility, and especially those at the top, are put on trial with all the full vigour of the law. This happened to an old school friend of mine who lived most of his life in Paris and was CEO of a large company, and to another friend who was a Professor of Engineering in Milan and advised people about hydrology. In the latter case all his offices were sealed off for evidence and his personal files examined, and in both cases they were taken to court and required to give evidence under oath. The good news is that both of them were found innocent. After the recent global financial meltdown, and thousands of cases over the years of company liability going unpunished (as far as the executives are concerned - and especially multi-nationals), some people may now be thinking that the above European system is far more just, the buck (or police truck) really does stop at the top not half way down - after all, tragically 309 people died in L'Aquila, some of whom staying in their homes because of reassuring advice from the experts.. Alan On 23/10/2012 13:58, Dominic McDonald wrote: For anyone interested in the communication of risk and uncertainty... the Italian seismologists who were being prosecuted following the L'Aquila earthquake have been convicted to 6 years in prison. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/22/italian-scientists-jailed-earthquake-aquila Watch what you say out there... Dom Dom McDonald Head of Public Engagement & Business Networks Science Oxford 1-5 London Place Oxford OX4 1BD T: 01865 728953 D: 01865 810021 F: 01865 791854 SCIENCEOXFORDLIVE<http://www.scienceoxfordlive.com/> SCIENCEOXFORDBUSINESS<http://www.scienceoxfordnetworks.com/> SCIENCEOXFORDSCHOOLS<http://www.scienceoxfordnext.com/> SCIENCEOXFORDNEWS<http://www.scienceoxfordonline.com/> This e-mail and any attachments are confidential and may contain personal views which are not the views of Science Oxford unless specifically stated. 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