Interesting posting. There is a saying (the CIA, I think) that 'cities are three meals away from a riot',meaning of course that should supply chains break down for any reason - fuel shortages, Gulf conflict, natural disaster, strikes etc - people would miss dinner, then lunch + dinner the next day, then that night the riots would begin.
The madness is that mankind actually produces (or did till around 2010 at any rate) more food per capita than we did in 1960. That's right, per capita, despite massive increase in global population since then. Due to the Green Revolution; but we are now 'eating oil', this increase is crucially dependent on non renewables, oil but also water, nitrogen fertilisers (themselves energy = oil dependent). We have as many overweight + obese people on the planet as undernourtished + malnourished
Two pieces of good news. World population will probably level off at 9.5 - 10 billion in 2050, 'only' some 40% more than now, then slowly fall. So - glass half full or half empty - we only have to feed 40% more than now - or - we have to find food for another China plus India, plus maybe another USA too.
Secondly, we have a lot of unused food production capacity. Much agric land in less-developed countries lies unused (OK, it may now be valiuable rainforest, but much else is minefields, or civil war battlegrounds, or just fallow and reverting to bush and scrub, due to rural depopulation as the cities balloon. Even in the developed world, much land is idle. If you live in a Western town or city, I will bet you £1 to £100 that within 1,000 metres of your home I can show you at least 10 hectares of land (maybe nearer 100) that could grow food that isn't, right now. Railway embankments, roundabouts, disused railways, roadside verges, disused factories, fringes of sports grounds, and that's before we even think of domestic gardens and parks. Google Ashram Acres, Birmingham, UK (they have solved the issue of old industrial pollution by having raised veg beds), google Dig for Victory and Cuba. Do we have the political will to improve this utliisation?
The bad news is, more people becoming rich enough to switch from rice to meat (but as they grow richer they have less children, so less future mouths to feed - female education is also pretty good here - and Iran's fall in fertility rate has been pretty spectacular, from 6.0 to 2.5 in just a few decades), climate change, and of course the evil food speculators. Maybe the world's poor should develop an exchange to speculate on bankers salaries, then see the financial ethical attitude change swiftly!
Dr Hillary Shaw
Food and Supply Chain Management Department
Harper Adams University College
Newport
Shropshire
TF10 8NB
www.fooddeserts.org
Gyneria, a country where discrimmination is acceptable,
In education, jobs, pay status, and more;
Gyneria, the land of women.
-----Original Message-----
From: Rory Padfield <
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To: CRIT-GEOG-FORUM <
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Sent: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 5:10
Subject: Riots and global food price spikes
Interesting take on the Arab spring riots - linked to spikes in food prices.
http://motherboard.vice.com/2012/9/10/we-are-now-one-year-and-counting-from-global-riots-complex-systems-theorists-say--2
If you're time limited, take a quick look at the diagram 3 paragraphs in: food
price index against riots.
"...whenever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly change in the
price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, the conditions ripen
for social unrest around the world. CSI doesn’t claim that any breach of 210
immediately leads to riots, obviously; just that the probability that riots will
erupt grows much greater."