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This is really interesting, if terrifying.. Dr Jon Cloke LCEDN/MEGS Research Associate Geography Department Loughborough University Loughborough LE11 3TU Office: 01509 228193 Mob: 07984 813681 ________________________________________ From: [log in to unmask] [[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Paul Beckwith [[log in to unmask]] Sent: 16 August 2012 23:24 To: [log in to unmask] Subject: [CAGList] Arctic sea ice continues to collapse... Hello all, The Arctic sea ice was hammered by a large cyclone that churned up the region for an entire week from about August 3rd to August 10th. On the order of 700,000 to 800,000 square kilometers of sea ice was lost. There is another cyclone on the way according to the long range forecast that will likely form on/about August 20th. Each successive cyclone will cause increasing amounts of damage to the sea ice. Here is the latest image of the sea ice yesterday (August 15th). Large pockets of ice are breaking off in the top part of the image, and the three “fingers” that are developing on the top part of the ice mass will be next. Cyclone #2 is still on track for Aug 20th and it is centered near the middle of the three fingers, an almost ideal location to push the ice out into the Atlantic so I expect that it will reduce the ice even more than Cyclone #1 did. In fact I am sure that another few cyclones over the next month before the end of the melt season in mid- to late-September will completely eliminate the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. This will amplify the changes to the jet streams in terms of slowing the speeds, increasing the waviness of the jets, and causing more extreme torrential rains and flooding, droughts, heat waves, and crop failures. [cid:image001.png@01CD7BC6.423DA650] Key points: Cyclone (low pressure area) occurred in Arctic Ocean and chewed up sea ice for an entire week - Storm area 1 million square kilometers - Wave height of 2 to 3 meters broke apart ice into smaller chunks, increasing surface area and thus melting - Storm mixed fresh water at surface (from melted ice) with deeper warmer saltier water from below increasing melting rate - Storm agitated water to depths of 500 meters (where water is much warmer) bringing it to surface increasing melt rate - Low pressure of storm center sucked up water level by 0.3 meters, causing warm water to flow into Arctic Ocean from Pacific Ocean via Bering Strait and from Atlantic Ocean, increasing melting - Storm rotation (counterclockwise) spread out ice over larger area and pushed ice towards open ocean (on Atlantic Ocean side) - Storms very rare in the Arctic in summer Weather forecasts from 10 day model (GFSx model) shows another cyclone will very likely occur in the Arctic starting on August 20th Sea ice is extremely thin and of very low area and volume. Before cyclone hit PIOMAS models showed: >5 % chance of complete melting of sea ice by 2013 > 50 % chance of complete melting of sea ice by 2015 > 95 % chance of complete melting of sea ice by 2018 Obviously, the cyclone is increasing the chances of complete melting at a sooner date. Cyclone #2 is on the way and if there is a #3 and #4 then the sea ice could be cleared out of the Arctic ocean (by melting, transporting, and mechanical breakage into tiny pieces with melting) by September 30th. All of my research and attained knowledge on the climate system indicates that total loss of sea-ice is becoming ever more likely on a day-to-day basis. Arctic warming is 4x to 6x faster than global average. Sea ice has high reflectivity so cools Arctic; when replaced with dark sea water the warming accelerates even more. Temperature difference between equator and Arctic decreases, thus the jet streams slow down, become much wavier, and change the weather patterns around the globe. Storms track in different locations, moving much slower so some areas get torrential downpours and flooding while other areas are very hot and dry (compared to normal). This will worsen as the sea ice vanishes. Global food supply is the weak point in the human system. Methane stored in permafrost on land and in permafrost on the continental shelves sea floor (about 50 meter depth) is being released at ever increasing rates; one methane molecule causes >100 x the warming that one carbon dioxide molecule causes. Climate records going back many years (paleorecords) from sea ice cores and marine sediment cores show that average global temperatures increased in the range from 6 to 8 degrees Celsius within a decade or less. Sea ice is the Achilles Heel of climate system, or the keystone or cornerstone of the system. A definite tipping point. Here are some links to presentations/slides that I have created recently as supporting evidence for my assertions above: Presentation that I gave to CMOS (Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society) on January 19th, 2012. Note that I generated this presentation and gave the talk 7 months ago and over 50,000 people have accessed the report on the CMOS web site, yet the mainstream media has failed to bring this information to the attention of the public. An ethical travesty, in my opinion. http://www.cmos.ca/Ottawa/SpeakersSlides/PaulBeckwith_19Jan2012.pdf Link to All-party climate change caucus meeting on Parliament Hill. Two months ago I gave this talk to the MPs in the center block of Parliament Hill. Liberal and NDP MPs were in attendance, but no Conservatives. Again, this information is being ignored by the media. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7NG42RjVQLXBrV1k/edit Summary of cyclone #1 that severely damaged sea ice in first week of August: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7NUE4SzZ5NmFsdzA/edit Meteorology/long range forecasts for cyclone #2: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7b1A3T3RLMnlZYVE/edit More information on cyclone #2 that is expected to develop in the Arctic in 4 days or so: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7dUQwYXJ6bXRSd00/edit Please do not hesitate to contact me with further questions. Regards, Paul Beckwith