Dear Eugenia,

No, this is not a good idea to do t-tests on posterior probabilities.

From BMA you should have average parameter estimates  (averaged over models and weighted by model evidences).

It should be sufficient to do two-sample t-tests (between groups) on the parameter estimates.

Or, if you want an inference about groups at the model level it should be sufficient to just report the posterior probability values - eg in group one model 1 was favoured (post prob=0.91) whereas in group 2 model 3 was favoured (post prob=0.93). If you don't have peaky posterior probs for the models you are best off doing parameter level inference (see above).

Best, Will


From: SPM (Statistical Parametric Mapping) [[log in to unmask]] on behalf of Gena Radulescu [[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 26 July 2012 20:32
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [SPM] Stats with posterior model probabilities

Hi SPMers and experts in DCM,

I have a question about DCM, BMA. I've recently performed a random-effects analysis with 8 DCM models in two groups, healthy controls, respectively a clinical group. Two models showed differences between the two groups.The "model level results" comprise the posterior model probabilities (.g_post). Is it OK to perform some statistical tests (i.e. two-sample t-test) on these posterior probabilities?
Would it be necessary to further transform these values?

Thanks in advance for your advice,

Eugenia

Dr. Eugenia Radulescu, MD, PhD

Postdoctoral Research Fellow

Sackler Centre for Consciousness Science,

Brighton and Sussex Medical School,

Brighton, UK