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Hi Mark, Just a few words then about what I've been doing... I've always liked science, and have kept up all branches science through avid reading of the Scientific American. But I found myself after University in an engineering job developing computers, computer electronics and computer software - so it was application of science. What I learnt was to take a systems approach and follow trends. This has been invaluable since retiring a few years ago, when I started to concern myself over the science of global warming. There seemed to be (and still seems to be) a lack of understanding in the climate science community about positive feedback - a common phenomenon in electronics. If one looks at the control of the planet's environment as a system, the "Earth System", then once can see that our planet has an exquisite mechanism in place for controlling and modulating the temperature involving amplification of Milankovitch cyclic signals [1] through the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current and the Arctic sea ice, but, most importantly, with negative feedback through meltwater to divert those currents southwards and away from the Arctic. As any electronics engineer will tell you, negative feedback is crucial to achieve stable amplification. Thus I see the basic problem facing our continued existence on this planet as an engineering problem, where the basic mechanism has been disrupted by the heat-energy forcing produced by a colossal pulse of the greenhouse gas, CO2. The warming signal has been amplified by the same mechanism of the Earth System that deals with Milankovitch signals! However there's no negative feedback to keep the system stable, so the amplification is running wild. We now have very strong positive feedback in the Arctic, because of the sea ice melting and exposing more water to sunshine causing further melting in a vicious cycle. This positive feedback was ignored by IPCC in their 2007 report, AR4. It may even be ignored in their AR5 report, though by the time this comes out, the sea ice extent may have collapsed, and everybody will know we are in an emergency. On top of the sea ice problem is the threat of methane from terrestrial permafrost as the whole Arctic warms. But, in the last few years, there have been growing signs of escalating methane emissions from the Arctic seabed, especially north of Siberia. This makes the risk of methane feedback extremely high/grave, where the greenhouse effect of the methane leads to further Arctic warming and further methane emissions, in an unstoppable cycle producing abrupt and catastrophic climate change. In trying to get action to avert disaster, a group of us wrote letters to key figures: the IPCC chairman, the ex-chairman, and various scientific advisers, without any real breakthrough in acceptance of either the danger or the means to avoid it. Then, last year, after a workshop on how to deal with the deteriorating Arctic situation, we set up the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG, as a campaign group for action. Recently we have been directing our attention at the UK government through the Environment Audit Committee, at which we gave evidence in their inquiry "Protecting the Arctic" [2]. BTW, our latest contribution, a plea for rapid government action, has only just been published [3], and should appear shortly on our web site [4] under "latest developments". Cheers, John [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles [2] http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenvaud/writev/171/contents.htm [3] http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmenvaud/writev/171/arc31.htm [4] http://www.ameg.me/ --- * From: *Mark Levene <[log in to unmask]> > *Date: *Mon, 09 Jul 2012 16:06:53 +0000 > *To: *Alastair McIntosh <[log in to unmask]>, 'Jonathan Ward' > <[log in to unmask]>, 'Christopher Shaw' > <[log in to unmask]>, 'John Nissen' <[log in to unmask]>, > "Dr. Nafeez Ahmed" <[log in to unmask]>, John Ashton > <[log in to unmask]>, Jon Barrett'' <[log in to unmask]> > *Cc: *<[log in to unmask]>, Justine Huxley > <[log in to unmask]> > *Subject: *Re: : Saturday Nov 17, Crisis Forum/ Climate Change nd > Violence workshop, St Ethelberga's London/ please read! > > dear good participants, > > it seems to have taken me all day to try and organise your various > missives/jottings etc into something approaching coherence! Before > good Marianne puts some of this material on the website would you care > to have a care perusal of what I've edited and collated together. > Apologies if vast realms of 'stuff' on you or your presentations have > been cut. It does need to be as short as possible. BUT if you feel > I've got anything desperately wrong please shout now. > > While John Ashton's blurb is forthcoming, if I can have a brief > biofrom John Nissen, rather than simply culled from Wikipedia and from > Jonathan Ward (we have a lot of John's and Jon's for this event!) > that would be excellent > > thanks all, > mark > > ---------------------------------------------------- > > > Provisional Programme Information > Saturday 17 November 2012 > Climate Change and Violence workshop 7 > St Ethelberga's Centre for Reconciliation & Peace, Bishopsgate, London > > Provisional details of the workshop (these will be finalised in the > coming months) > > Morning session > > Registration 9.45-10.15 > > 10.15 - 11.45 > > John Ashton, 'Where history, politics and culture collide' > > A perspective on climate change from an escaped FCO diplomat (to be > continued). > > Nafeez Mossadeq Ahmed, 'Overcoming the Crisis of Civilisation: > Transformative Pathways for Socio-political, Economic, Ethical and > Technological Transition to a Post-Carbon World' > > Over the coming decades an unprecedented convergence of civilisational > crises on a global scale, will lead either to unmitigated disaster, > or open opportunities for renewal and transformation. In this > presentation, Nafeez will outline some of the key areas for structural > transformation, and - based on lessons learned so far - how a viable > post-carbon civilisation capable of surviving and perhaps even > prospering in the 21st century might look. > > > coffee break 11.45-12.00 > > 12.00 - 1.30 Facing off collapse ? Whose voices get heard in the > climate change debate? > John Nissen and Chris Shaw, with Jonathan Ward, round-table panel. > > The Earth System embraces mechanics, climate, heat dynamics and > cryogenics, together with biological, biochemical, chemical and > physical processes and cycles. In the face of what is clearly now > imminent collapse in key domains of the system, John Nissen will be > arguing for an engineering approach to ensure the planet can continue > to support our civilisation in a sustainable and hospitable way. Set > against John's proposition that such remedial action is one of > absolute necessity Chris Shaw will pose whether geo-engineering might > simply be the cloak under which neo-liberal ideology reproduces > 'business as usual', leaving humanity more wedded (and marginalised) > than ever to implicitly undemocratic discourses and constructions of > climate change when actually the phenomenon might be providing us with > the necessary lever for radical social change. > > 1.30-2.15 lunch > > 2.15- 3.45 'So what /is/ to be done? A basic call to consciousness, > empathy and antisyzygy' > > Alastair McIntosh and Jon Barrett > > What kind of a world do we need to work towards to bring about a > reduction in violence as set against the realities of accelerating > climate change? What are the social, political, psychological and > spiritual dynamics of such a challenge? And, perhaps more the > point, where they might contradict one another how do we hold such > contradictions /together/ so that we don't end up > compartmentalising ourselves and each other through splitting, > projection and demonisation? > > 3.45-4.00 coffee break > > 4.00 -5.00 final plenary, all available speakers > > > Brief biographical notes. > > *John Ashton* was formerly Special Representative for Climate Change > at the FCO, as well as in the Department of Energy and Climate > Change, and in the Government more widely, with a remit to building a > stronger political foundation for an effective global response to > climate change. In 2002, he founded the independent think tank E3G, > and later played a key role during the approach to Copenhagen in > designing the FCO¹s climate change network and strategy, with its > shift in focus from the environment to the politics of security, > prosperity and equity. With a distinguished public career prior, > John has been active in climate diplomacy in various capacities since > 1997. > > *Jon Barrett* has spent many years in developmental work with people > in difficulty with their lives especially young and adult offenders > and people tackling addictions, and especially through the Scottish > charity Basecamp Trust, which he founded and directed. Since 2008, he > has been an independent researcher, writer and educator on the > OEconverging crises¹ of human and ecological unsustainability. His > primary interest continues to be in OEwhat works¹ to engage so-called > OEhard-to-reach¹ population groups and to motivate enduring > pro-social/pro-environmental behaviour change. Jon and his wife, > Louise live on the north Finistere coast in France where in renovating > a derelict farm as a home and public resource they continue to explore > what OEsustainability¹ /really/ means for our 21st century lives and > expectations. > > *Alastair McIntosh* is a Scottish writer, broadcaster and activist on > social, environmental and spiritual issues. His many books include > /Hell and High Water,/ on the cultural and deep psychological elements > of climate change and which was described by the Archbishop of > Canterbury as 'inspirational' in preparing his address to Copenhagen > in December 2009. His lectures round the world embrace WWF > International, the World Council of Churches, the Russian Academy of > Sciences and also the Joint Services Command and Staff College, where > for a decade and a half he has articulated the case for non-violence > at the most senior levels of the British military establishment. > Alastair and his wife, Verene Nicolas, have lived in Govan for the > last 7 years where Alastair is founding director of the Gael Gael > Trust for the regeneration of people and place. > > > *Nafeez Mossadeq Ahmed *is Executive Director of the Institute for > Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank > focused on the study of violent conflict in the context of global > ecological, energy and economic crises. Having published widely on > international terrorism and the OEWar on Terror¹, his current > research on the radicalisation of violent conflicts in strategic > regions, as rooted in the structure of the global political economy, > is developed in A/User¹s Guide to the Crisis of Civilisation: and How > to Save It/ (2010). This has also been more recently developed as a > feature documentary 'The Crisis of Civilisation' with the filmmaker > Dean Puckett. > > *John Nissen > * > *Christopher Shaw* is a Research Associate at the University of > Sussex. His current interest is in developing responses to climate > change based on explicit and socially progressive value systems. His > progress can be followed at www.notargets.org > <_http://www.notargets.org_> > > *Jonathan Ward > * > > > > > > > > > >