Hi all,
Please excuse cross-posting.
Bill McKibben, of 350.org fame, [1]has a recent blog [2] in which he
includes some critical figures.
“Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by mid-century and still have some
reasonable hope of staying below two degrees. ("Reasonable," in this
case, means four chances in five, or somewhat worse odds than playing
Russian roulette with a six-shooter.)”
How much CO2 equivalent comes from natural gas production? In 2009 world
production was 3.177E12m3.I assume that is a liquid volume. If a liquid,
then we have conversion: 1 kg = 1.406 m3, making production about
4.47E12 kg or 4.47E9 tonnes, or 4.47 Gt. Compare global CO2 emissions at
~30 Gt.
Consider 3.2% gas is fugitive (EPA figures) [3]. Then that represents
0.143 Gt methane, or 15 Gt of CO2-equiv over 20 years at 105x CO2 -
weight for weight. That adds 50% onto the CO2 emissions of around 30
Gt!We definitely need a price on fugitive methane as well as carbon out
of the ground that becomes CO2.Note that the atmospheric burden of
methane is about 5 Gt, and annual emissions are estimated as between 0.5
and 0.6 Gt.
Any carbon tax system must take into account fugitive emissions of
methane. Howarth's work suggests that methane is worse than coal as
regards carbon footprint [4], when considered over 20 years or less.
Cheers,
John
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McKibben
[2]
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719?page=2
alternatively
http://www.postcarbon.org/article/1011608-global-warming-s-terrifying-new-math
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas
[4]
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/fugitive-methane-stirs-debate-on-natural-gas/
--
On 21/07/2012 02:20, Gum Hak Doi Suthep wrote:
>
>
> Also here:
> http://www.postcarbon.org/article/1011608-global-warming-s-terrifying-new-math
>
[snip]
> *To:*
> *Sent:* Saturday, 21 July 2012 7:31 AM
> *Subject:* [biochar-policy] Global Warming's Terrifying New Math (
> McKibben )
>
> Bill McKibben is of course well known of www.350.org <http://www.350.org/>
>
> He has published an article in Rolling Stone about Global Warming:
>
> Global Warming's Terrifying New Math
>
> Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe - and that make
> clear who the real enemy is
>
> www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719
> <http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719>
>
> grts
> Bruno .M
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
>
> *From:* Bruno M. <[log in to unmask]>
>
>
>
>
> __._,_.___
>
>
> Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional
> Change settings via the Web
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/biochar-policy/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJnZWZwcWRzBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIyNDM4MDkwBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNzQxODYxMgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNzdG5ncwRzdGltZQMxMzQyODMzNjMx>
> (Yahoo! ID required)
> Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]:%20Digest>
> | Switch to Fully Featured
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]:%20Fully%20Featured>
>
> Visit Your Group
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/biochar-policy;_ylc=X3oDMTJlaTJsZm9vBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIyNDM4MDkwBGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNzQxODYxMgRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNocGYEc3RpbWUDMTM0MjgzMzYzMQ-->
> | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> |
> Unsubscribe
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>
> __,_._,___
