East European trailer market grew by 58% in2011
A forecast report issued by consultants CLEAR shows that
there was 58% growth in heavy trailer demand in Eastern Europe in 2011.
Thirteen of the fifteen countries covered in the report had growth of over
30%. Three markets grew by more than 100%.
The stellar performer in the region was, for the second year
running, Turkey, which completely recovered from the downturn of 2009 to post
record trailer demand in 2010 and 2011. This makes Turkey the largest
trailer market in Eastern Europe and likely to remain so until overtaken by
Russia again in the long term, with Poland relegated to third place. In
fact, in 2011 Turkey was the largest market anywhere in Europe with the sole
exception of Germany.
It must be remembered just how far the East European trailer
market fell since the peak in 2007. After the initial drop of 11% in 2008
there was a collapse, resulting in a drop of 61% in 2009. The demand for
new trailers was returned to the level of 2002. The drop was so drastic
that it will take until 2014 to recover to the level of new trailer demand last
seen in 2006.
Unlike Western Europe however, the drop in demand will not
lead to a fall in the size of the total trailer parc (fleet), which even in
2009 was estimated to have grown by 3%. Over the next five years the
trailer parc will grow by an average of 6.2%, which again is far higher than
the figure for Western Europe.
Trailer demand in the countries of Eastern Europe will
recover at different rates – some moving back onto a high growth path quite
quickly. Others experienced such rapid growth from 2002 to 2007 that they
now have nearly enough trailers to meet their countries’ transport needs.
In these cases, trailer demand will never return to the levels seen in 2006/7.
Gary Beecroft, managing director of CLEAR said, “The outlook
for East European new trailer demand in 2012 has not changed – like Western
Europe there will be a fall in the market. However, the prospects for
2013/14 have brightened and are better than forecast last year. Turkey
looked overheated in 2011, but if planned investments go ahead, it will enhance
its position as a major trailer manufacturing centre over the next few years.”
Background
Many East European countries joined the EU in 2004, which
resulted in booming demand for trailers. In particular, semi-trailer
demand rocketed as the volumes of international transport increased, both
within Eastern Europe and between East and West. From 2002 to 2007 the
compound annual growth rate for trailer demand was 25.7%. Demand broke
the 100,000 unit barrier in 2007 but fell to 40,000 in 2009.
77% of goods in Europe are moved by road and most of that
proportion is transported on a trailer pulled by a truck.
The East European Trailer Market Report (April 2012), with
forecasts to 2016, can be obtained from CLEAR using the contact details
below. A new report for the West European market was issued in March
2012.
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CLEAR is a consulting group working with companies active in
automotive and transport markets. Projects focus on the future demand for
products as a result of changes in technology, markets, business processes and
legislation. Clients include component manufacturers, vehicle
manufacturers, investment banks, management consultants, materials producers
and government bodies.
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