Johnson's
24 January 2012
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A World Security Institute Project
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#1
Global Warming In Russia Worse Than World's Average - Ministry
RIA-Novosti
Moscow, 16 January: The average rise in temperatures in
"Furthermore, compared with the 100-year trend, over the past several
decades, the warming rate has increased several-fold, annual precipitation has
increased; the annual river flow of
According to the document, during the 21st century the average ground air temperature
on the
Arctic and melting ice
"The biggest warming is to be expected in Siberia and in
At the same time the ice cover of the
Simultaneously there has been a drop in the depth of multi-year ice. If in the
1990s multi-year ice over 5 m. deep made up 28 per cent of all Arctic ice, in
the winter of 2010 it accounted for not more than 6 per cent. The depth of the
bulk of the largest ice floes reduced to 2.2 m. and is near the depth of
one-year ice. (Passage omitted)
The degradation of the ice cover, in turn, causes a further acceleration of
warming as the melting of ice results in the reduction of the reflection of
solar radiation and therefore in an increase in heat absorption.
The positive outcomes of this process for
Calculations give reason to expect changes for the worse in many regions in
terms of the statistics of various extreme and dangerous phenomena, including
heat waves, forest fires, droughts, extreme precipitation.
Snow, water and floods in European Russia
According to the Emergencies Ministry, European Russia should expect a
reduction in snow cover and an increase in winter river flows. At the same
time, in the north and east of Asian Russia, where solid precipitation
prevails, there will be an increase in the amount of snow accumulated during
winter and its faster melting in spring, which increases the risk of flooding.
(Passage omitted)
The ministry predicts that by 2030 the average winter temperature in northwest
Russia may increase by 1.7-2 degrees Centigrade and the average summer
temperature, by 0.9-1 per cent.
The expected climate change in central
Losses and benefits
Climate change will have an increasingly large influence on the economic and
living conditions on the whole
Climate change leads to two-fold consequences for the country's economy.
(Passage omitted)
The damage caused by the existing regional climate change trends, including
extreme and dangerous weather conditions, may reach an average 1-2 per cent of
GDP. On some, quite large, territories, it may be considerably higher, 4-5 per
cent of regional GDP.
At the same time some of the consequences of climate change open "windows
of opportunity" for developing the economy, for instance, in connection
with a potentially favourable for a considerable part of the territory of the
Russian Federation trend for a reduction of the heating season and, therefore,
a reduction in requirements in and cost of fuel and heating (accompanied
however by a rise in the cost of air conditioning). Furthermore, advantages
from climate change are linked to a trend towards a longer vegetation period,
an expansion of the area of farming and, consequently, a rise in agricultural
production, a longer navigation period and water transport opportunities.
"It appears that the cumulative effect of the above trends as regards the
direct impact of climate change on the country's economy to 2030 will consist
in damage (including, primarily, damage caused by dangerous natural phenomena)
exceeding the above-mentioned benefits. At the same time, this will have little
impact on the macroeconomic indicators of