Dear Graham

In this case could you kindly share with us a link to the report you refer to when you said

This is Graham Ennis,

one of the scientists who signed the original report, in the Uk, that led to the story, plus the link in to the Russians

So is this a report by yourself/your partners or is this something that also involves Semiletov?

I would like to read the original

Thank you

George

From: Discussion list for the Crisis Forum [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Omega Institute
Sent: 13 December 2011 22:32
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: "Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas"

Dear George,

The Russians made an exploration voyage this summer past, They saw the plumes, some of which were more than a kilometer across, of boiling sea. They took 115 observations, with all means, over a long transit line. in other words, they did all they could, with measures at their disposal. They have been quite dliberately starved of funds, and resources. They are unpopular. They did the very best that they could. We did have an independent UK corroberation, from a UK expedition, that was very frightening, that something very big is happening up there in the North. The urgency of getting out a first report, (NOT a science paper, but a public science report) due to the seriousness of it all, was uppermost in our minds. We would be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong, eventually, as the outcome, for all of us, is otherwise extreamly frightening. Publishing now, will hopefully trigger off the scientific process of falsification, or not, and clarify the matter. But we have gained a year, by doing this. We are quite satisfied now, that there is a very high probability of the Arctic sea ice reaching  Zero, at th end of the melt season, by 2015. (Give or take a couple of years or so.) We have very good observational data for this.

So time is of the essence, as zero ice = year zero, as a benchmark for the observation of near future very rapid climate and weather change events, as recorded in ice core data, from previous events. Very serious. Every year now counts, and once gone, we cannot get them back, and put them to any good use.

I hope that this explains why we have acted as we did. By end of January, I think we shall be having more material, and more back up. I will certainly try to keep everyone informed.

Best regards

Graham Ennis

----- Original Message -----

From: [log in to unmask]">George Marshall

To: [log in to unmask]">[log in to unmask]

Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:43 PM

Subject: Re: "Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas"

I would also like some corroboration. Igor Semiletov has made quite a name for himself as the Russian methane Cassandra- he has been making high profile claims for years about this.

Now of course he may be a brave visionary (after all, Cassandra was proven right) but I am wary...other scientists urge caution and this might be wise. And Semiletov’s quotes don’t give me confidence. When he says:

Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them."

that does not sound like a scientist talking---most scientists are very wary of extrapolating from a single occurrence. And for good reason- we had a big scare a few years back about the gulf stream packing out that was not supported in later studies. I am also wary of newspaper articles that quote a single source that they know will give them good copy. The Independent loves eco doom stories as much as the Telegraph likes eco-fraud ones.

So I would like to know more from scientists who are specialists in this field- is Semiletov regarded as being well grounded in evidence or does he enjoy the limelight from making strong statements without sufficient back up?

All fair questions because he is making very very serious claims.

----- Original Message -----

From: [log in to unmask]">Jonathan Ward

To: [log in to unmask]">[log in to unmask]

Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 12:46 PM

Subject: "Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas"

Of interest to Forumers - does anyone have more information behidn this story?

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-sea-ice-releases-deadly-greenhouse-gas-6276134.html

Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.

The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.

In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov, of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed.

"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them."

Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tonnes of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea-ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change.

Dr Semiletov's team published a study in 2010 estimating that the methane emissions from this region were about eight million tonnes a year, but the latest expedition suggests this is a significant underestimate of the phenomenon.

In late summer, the Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev conducted an extensive survey of about 10,000 square miles of sea off the East Siberian coast. Scientists deployed four highly sensitive instruments, both seismic and acoustic, to monitor the "fountains" or plumes of methane bubbles rising to the sea surface from beneath the seabed.

"In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the seabed," Dr Semiletov said. "We carried out checks at about 115 stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale – I think on a scale not seen before. Some plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere – the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal."

Dr Semiletov released his findings for the first time last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

No virus found in this message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2012.0.1873 / Virus Database: 2108/4677 - Release Date: 12/12/11

No virus found in this message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2012.0.1873 / Virus Database: 2108/4678 - Release Date: 12/13/11