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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Next UK workshop on 'Forecasting Fundamentals ' @ Mon 7th & Tue 8th of November 2011. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting has been running this and other courses successfully for over 10 years, training over 500 demand planners worldwide. This course on "Forecasting Fundamentals" introduces you to the basic model, tools and systems needed for statistical forecasting, and lays the foundation for increasing your forecasting accuracy and efficiency of work! !!! Hurry - only few places left !!! ---------------------------- Target Audience ---------------------------- The course is aimed at practitioners with some experience in organisational forecasting, and develops the fundamentals of forecasting methods in a maths-lite, hands-on format that does not require any prior statistical knowledge. ---------------------------- Course Format ---------------------------- The compact course consists of 4 days held in two blocks of 2 days each. The first part of the course will be held November 7th & 8th 2011 in Lancaster. The dates of the second part of the course, normally held in February of next year, are agreed with the workshop attendees during the first session. ---------------------------- Course Contents ---------------------------- A combination of lectures and exercises using Microsoft Excel will enable you to understand the functioning (and the limitations) of Simple, Trended, Seasonal and Trend-Seasonal Exponential Smoothing and causal modelling using single and multiple dynamic regression. The course will consist of hands-on-training (using mainly MS Excel) on: Fundamentals of forecasting - Statistical forecasting methods - Limitations of Naive methods - The effect of moving & weighted averages - Selecting and Parameterising Exponential Smoothing methods Econometric methods - Understanding single regression - Extending information to multiple regression - Building dynamic regression including dummy variables & seasonality Forecast evaluation through unbiased forecast errors Role & adequate use of judgement in forecasting Examples of Forecasting software etc. Optional modules are available to supplement the core course, including an optional module of a full day following the core course to analyse your data, build "best practices" models and track possible improvements in forecasting accuracy. All courses and add-on modules are subject to a minimum number of registrations. Discounts for groups of 2 and 3 attendees per company are available. For additional information please visit the website http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/Research/Centres/Forecasting/Training/ or download our pdf-brochure directly: http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk/files/forecasting/7067/download/ . We look forward to welcoming in Lancaster! For all general enquiries, please contact Dr. Nikolaos Kourentzes at [log in to unmask] . Kind regards Nikos Kourentzes _______________________________________________ Dr. Nikolaos Kourentzes Assistant Professor in Management Science (Lecturer) Senior Consultant, Lancaster Research Centre for Forecasting Lancaster University Management School Department of Management Science Lancaster LA1 4YX, United Kingdom Tel +44 (0)1524 592991direct Tel +44 (0)1524 593867 department Fax +44 (0)1524 844885 Internet http://www.lums.lancs.ac.uk eMail [log in to unmask] You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.