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From a food consumer point of view,the process of agricultural change now starting in India has parrallels with what is coming to a conclusion in the UK (apart from the suicide tragedies).  India has 52% of its labour force in agriculture, down from 71% in 1980 (all figures from the CIA world factbook online and the Statesmans Yearbook).  This compares with 2% - 3% for a developed economy.  That 52% produces 16% of india's GDP - making the average agric worker just 30% 'GDP-efficient' compared to the Indian average worker. India has 30% of its population as urban (compared to 17% in 1950 and just 11% in 1920).

As supermarkets gain market share in India, again a process only just in its infancy, there will be serious pressure downwards on farn gate prices, just as has happeend in the UK.  However, although this pressure will no doubt boost the supermarket's profits (how many £billions does Tesco make these days), it will also result in lower retail grocery prices.  Also, a lot of kiruna (small shop) owners will be out of a job.  However urbanites will enjoy cheaper food.

This too will create inequalities, because lower inflation will lead to lower interest rates, which, as in the UK till recently, will boost asset prices that are based on borrowing, i.e houses and shares - so the upper middle class in India, owning shares,houses, pension plans, will do well; lower grade workers, not owning any of these assets, will be squeezed.

On the other hand, a low-inflation, low-interest rate, economy, might produce a lot of jobs that might not otherwise have existed.  (It also might produce the mother of all housing crashes in ca. 2021).

So there are going to be a lot of winners, and losers, in this process of Indian agricultural reform, many losers besides the small-scale farmers.

Dr Hillary Shaw
School of Business, Management and Marketing
Harper Adams University College
Newport
Shropshire
TF10 8NB


-----Original Message-----
From: Jonathan Cloke <[log in to unmask]>
To: CRIT-GEOG-FORUM <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wed, 8 Jun 2011 10:26
Subject: Re: A Quarter of a Million Indian Farmers Committed Suicide in the last 16 years - one every 30 minutes

See this sub-title heading from the latest Financial Times report on India, ‘New 


trade routes: India and globalisation 2011’:





‘Agriculture: Stringent curbs hold back crop sales abroad’ “The country needs to 


modernise its ancient farming sector, writes Amy Kazmin”





Translation: ‘More dead farmers needed, please.’








Dr Jon Cloke


Lecturer/Research Associate


Geography Department


Loughborough University


Loughborough LE11 3TU





Office: 01509 228193


Mob: 07984 813681


________________________________________


From: A forum for critical and radical geographers [[log in to unmask]] 


On Behalf Of Ritika Shrimali [[log in to unmask]]


Sent: 08 June 2011 02:21


To: [log in to unmask]


Subject: Re: A Quarter of a Million Indian Farmers Committed Suicide in the last 


16 years - one every 30 minutes





Hey everybody,





There seems to be nothing really new about the new NYU report that has come out.





P. Sainath, a noted rural journalist has been saying this and lot more for the 


several years now. http://www.hinduonnet.com/2007/11/15/stories/2007111554771300.htm





I have just read and heard the democracy Now report - but it appears that the 


NYU prof has not even once provided a critical analysis on the role of the 


Indian State in promoting corporate capital (in general) and GM seeds (in 


particular). Why is this happening?





When Amy Goodman ask the prof about solutions - she said 'we need more accurate 


information'...my heart bleeds everytime I hear statements likes these. These 


solutions are too naive for the times we're living in...





Anyhow, if someone has access to the actual report, then I would love to read 


it. Please do share.





Ritika





--


Ritika Shrimali


Doctoral Candidate,


Department of Geography,


York University, Toronto


Canada


http://www.marxists.org/subject/art/literature/castillo/works/apolitical.htm