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I've tried, but I can't let the discussion evolve and keep completely "silent"!

Re this point - except that if there's an explicit "system 2" approach with lots of evidence - even from systematic reviews of high quality RCTs - the individuals who comprise a decision making group (e.g. one of Ash's commissioning policy groups or individual funding request panels) will all have different past experiences driving their own system 1. Its likely isn't it that sometimes, however explicit the system two data and process, that at best those individuals will find it difficult to accept the data and prefer their system 1predetermined "data". They will need to manage the same dissonance between system 1 and system 2 that occurs sometimes in the clinical setting. The cognitive dance remains visible.

And all that's before we get to the process losses potentially associated with group decision making!!

Re Ash's rejection of exceptionality - let me pose another scenario. Patient gets new treatment as part of clinical trial. There's no other effective treatment for the distressing symptoms associated with the disease, and yet the disease is unlikely to be fatal. The drug gets licensed, but the clinical effectiveness is questionable and the cost effectiveness means the drug doesn't get commissioned.

Our individual patient however gets substantial relief from her distressing symptoms. The evidence describes the average result in the population as we all know. She's at the extreme end of the normally distributed range of response. She tries to manage without the treatment but symptoms are intolerable and even though she has spent her entire career working in public service, and there is no one more committed to the principles of the greatest good for the greatest number, she finds herself claiming exceptionality.

Is that so unreasonable? Wouldn't we all prescribe? Arguably if we didn't we'd be failing to make the care of patients our first concern.

The Sackett EBM definition covered best possible evidence and actually aspects of best possible individual decision making too. Decision making and EBP are closely related. Both reject authority as an automatic guide, both involve a spirit of enquiry and both should acknowledge the requirements to honour the ethical principles involved in both the care of populations and of individuals.

I've come to the conclusion far too late that whilst compiling and knowing the evidence is vital, the evidence never makes the decision for you. Whether its the external validity problems of extrapolating results to populations not included in the RCTs, or the individual versus population perspective, or the stochastic uncertainty of whether an individual will be one of few who will benefit or one of the many who won't, there's still a tricky decision to be made. The reputation of the decision maker(s) depend on the quality of the processes employed to make the decision - whether making a diagnosis, selecting a treatment, or commissioning a service. So we need to study how we make decisions.

Do we too often "teach" just the mechanics of pure EBM? Formulating clinical questions etc just finds us the data. Shouldn't we always try and get to how to BETTER use those vital EBM skills to inform decision making? So not just finding the best evidence in the context of the clinical care of the patient currently taxing our skills (integrated EBM teaching- probably the current summit of most EBM curricula?), but also the various ways we might or might not use that evidence to make a decision?

Best wishes

Neal

Neal Maskrey
National Prescribing Centre
Liverpool UK



 
From: Dr. Amy Price [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Sunday, March 27, 2011 12:08 AM
To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Re: Prioritisation in the NHS
 

A thought...It may be that learning and optimizing the processes involved in decision making systems 1+2  would help a medical professional to discern the effective timing and implementation for both systems so they do not try to present a system 1 process instead of a system 2 in the system 2 only framework. (I can’t count the number of times I have heard loss of freedom to practice medicine, big pharma conspiracy and government interference used to excuse a lack of diligent foresight, research and preparation)  

 

Also within a system 2 presentation there may be room for judiciously placed system 1 inferences...good decision making is a clear approach to discernment, timing and opportunity and takes a lot of practice which can be accomplished in system one friendly situations. I think it is even advisable to practice in the trenches before one take on the big leagues.

 

Best

Amy

 

From: Evidence based health (EBH) [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Djulbegovic, Benjamin
Sent: 26 March 2011 04:19 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Prioritisation in the NHS

 

Thanks, Ash

I raised my previous point in the context of different decision-making mechanisms (system I vs. system II)… a number of people acknowledged- yourself included- importance of intuition for decision-making… yet, when it comes to decision-making of the types you described, we almost exclusively rely on the rational (system II) approach as you detailed below…This is particularly reflected in your following sentence “If you want to prescribe drug A to your patient when it is not ordinarily funded by the commissioners, you will have to prove to the commissioners that your request is truly exceptional.” That proof, we would probably all agree, will never be accepted based on tacit, intuitive knowledge despite our clear understanding of the importance of these processes…

Best

Ben

PS I guess all what we  can say that scientific method (based on system II reasoning process using public knowledge accessible equally to all observers), as fallible as it is, remains the best and probably only tool at our disposal to make rational decisions…(which is not to say that we should not attempt to use science to understand the processes that are occurring at subconscious levels, as pointed earlier by Neal and others).

PSS Although on the face of it, this is a theoretical, academic discussion, the points we are discussing here  have enormous practical relevance, as  when, for example, individual decision-making (based on “private”, intuitive evidence) conflicts with EBM guidelines (using public evidence that others, similarly trained people can understand).

 

 

From: Ash Paul [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Saturday, March 26, 2011 3:26 PM
To: Djulbegovic, Benjamin; [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Prioritisation in the NHS

 

Dear Ben,
Prioritisation doesn't work so arbitarily like that in England.
We have national organisations like NICE who issue Technology Appraisal Guidance (TAG) on certain high cost drugs and medical devices, on the basis of clinical and cost effectiveness. The NHS is legally bound to fund them within 3 months of a positive NICE TAG, but will not fund them if the TAG is negative.
But there are lots of drugs and devices that NICE does not pronounce judgment on, because they don't have the capacity and resources to do so.
Then this is what happens.
You need to remember a couple of things before you read on, because it will give you the context in which we NHS Commissioners operate. Firstly the commissioners are allocated their fixed annual budget (from the beginning of April to end of March the following year). Secondly, the commissioners are statutorily bound by law not to exceed their annual budget by even an extra penny (they have to remain within their allocated resource limit). It's the classical case of Charles Dickens's Mr Micawber in David Copperfield - income 20 shillings; expenditure 19 shillings 6 pence; result happpiness/ income 20 shillings; expenditure 20 shillings 6 pence; result misery.
Let's suppose you are a consultant who wishes to use a new drug A or device B which has not been NICE'd. We consider that as a 'service development'. So, you will need to write down a business case and submit it to the commissioners for consideration during the annual prioritisation round. The annual prioritisation round takes place in December/January and all business cases have to compete against each other to be prioritised. The business cases are prioritised against a set of ethical and commissioning principles with criteria and weights (attached to each criteria) and scored. Those that score above a pre-agreed minimum score are prioritised and then sent to a group of local clinicians and commissioners who match the prioritised services against the annual budget available (in an open, transparent and 'Wednesbury' reasonable way). If your drug A does not meet the cut, the commissioners will not fund it that year.
Herein, lies the crunch. Ordinarily, if you say you won't fund it, no resident in your local population should have access to the drug/device. The principles of social justice and equity demand that it should be an 'all or none' phenomenon. Lawyers have repeatedly advised us that NHS commissioners can/should take recourse to this action. But politicians are always jittery about the dreaded 'R' word being officially bandied around. So commissioners in the NHS have agreed on a loop-hole (pretty unsatisfactory, in my opinion) to get around this system and keep the politicians happy ie through the exceptional funding route. If you want to prescribe drug A to your patient when it is not ordinarily funded by the commissioners, you will have to prove to the commissioners that your request is truly exceptional. Your request for funding is sent to an Individual Funding Request (IFR) Panel, comprised of commissioners, clinicians, the public and lay members of the Board of the Commissioning PCT, which will decide whether your exceptional funding request merits approval. All off-license/unlicensed funding requests and also funding requests for drugs/devices not approved by NICE TAG's must similarly be sent to the IFR Panel (these are the Panels that Sarah Palin et al refer to the NHS Death Panels, which, by the way, is a completely false description of these Panels).
If your funding request is refused by the Panel, you can appeal against the decision, and your appeal will be heard by an Appeals Panel, the composition of which is entirely different from the original IFR Panel. The decision of the Appeals Panel is final.
The unsuccessful patient can, however, take the commissioners to court and request a judicial review of the funding decision.
Hope you find this useful.
Regards,

Ash

Dr Ash Paul
Medical Director
NHS Bedfordshire

21 Kimbolton Road

Bedford

MK40 2AW

Tel no: 01234897224

Email: [log in to unmask]

 

 

 

 


From: "Djulbegovic, Benjamin" <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Sat, 26 March, 2011 14:13:16
Subject: Re: Clinical Decision Making and Diagnostic Error

And, of course, we need to add to this, as pointed by Jim Walker, the famous Godel’s proof that we can know something even if cannot prove it…

 

But, Ash, how does this discussion bode to EBMers including your own decision-making when you try to rationally and fairly allocate scarce resources as you have eloquently discussed it on this group on a number of occasions… What do you tell to people who tell you “I know (from my experience) that this treatment works and you are telling me that there is no evidence to fund this therapy”.

I am afraid we are coming full circle, and seems to me that we simply do not have any other recourse but to rely on our meager neocortex ( Jim’s “the conscious tip of a fully integrated iceberg”) , at least when it comes to decision-making involving others…And, as I pointed out in my earlier post, justification for this is that rational inferential system (=EBM) is more often right than intuition (although is far from “idiot-proof”…)

Best

ben

 

 

Benjamin Djulbegovic, MD, PhD

Distinguished Professor

University of South Florida & H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute

 

From: Evidence based health (EBH) [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Ash Paul
Sent: Saturday, March 26, 2011 4:18 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Clinical Decision Making and Diagnostic Error

 

Dear Rakesh,

 

It's interesting to note that Albert Einstein was a great protagonist of the powers of intuition. However, to my mind, his quotes are much more apt for the psyche of the inventor/discoverer, than they are for medics charged with routinely saving lives using proven treatments.

 

Einstein's scientific writings are littered with quotes on the subject:

 

1. 'I believe in intuition and inspiration…at times I feel certain I am right while not knowing the reason'.


2. 'The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift'.


3. 'The intellect has little to do on the road to discovery. There comes a leap in consciousness, call it intuition or what you will, and the solution comes to you, and you don’t know how or why'.

Einstein was, ofcourse, preceeded by the immortal Aristotle who wrote 'Intutition is the source of scientific knowledge'.

Regards,

 

Ash

Dr Ash Paul
Medical Director
NHS Bedfordshire

21 Kimbolton Road

Bedford

MK40 2AW

Tel no: 01234897224

 

 

 


From: Rakesh Biswas <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask]
Sent: Saturday, 26 March 2011, 4:37
Subject: Re: Clinical Decision Making and Diagnostic Error

A quote from Steve Gilman ( posted by Arin Basu in a different context for a different forum):

"Much that you learn will be learned at a level below consciousness. Use this. Even as you guide your thoughts consciously, allow for the intuitive. This interplay between the conscious and unconscious is where the art of thinking really blossoms."

Copyright Steve Gillman.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/616048

Just a lame attempt on my part to summarize this rich discussion. Also the line marked copyright makes me wonder about its true place in a web based meta-cognitive future.

:-)