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It's a great shame this list is so rigidly moderated with respect to its 'No Discussion' policy, since here's a question which I and probably a number of others would like to know the answer to, on which I have a few thoughts which I'd like to get other people's views on, and which probability theorists, of whom there likely are a few among the subscribers, no doubt have much more insightful comments than the rest of us - yet all such postings are not allowed. Would the moderator like to suggest a list where this could be discussed? Would John Like to post the question there? Regards Andrew Dunning -----Original Message----- From: A UK-based worldwide e-mail broadcast system mailing list [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of John Bibby Sent: Wednesday, March 23, 2011 6:27 AM To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Nuclear Probabilities: " If an event has probability 1/x of occurring per year, then it occurs on average once every x years" Hullo guys I really should know the answer to this but my knowledge of elementary probability is so ropey. Regarding the statement: " If an event has probability 1/x of occurring per year, then it occurs on average once every x years" A. Is it true? B. What's a simple proof? (Note I've said nothing about independence etc.) C. Can anyone please provide a simple example to illustrate problems with this argument? Thanks JOHN BIBBY You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank. This communication, including any attachments, is intended solely for the use of the addressee and may contain information which is privileged, confidential, exempt from disclosure under applicable law or subject to copyright. If you are not an intended recipient, any use, disclosure, distribution, reproduction, review or copying is unauthorized and may be unlawful. If you have received this transmission in error, please notify the sender immediately. Thank you. Cette communication,y compris les pieces jointes, est reservee a l'usage exclusif du destinataire et peut contenir des informations privilegiees, confidentielles, exemptees de divulgation selon la loi ou protegees par les droits de publication. Si vous n'etes pas un destinataire, toute utilisation, divulgation, distribution, reproduction, examen ou copie est non-autorisee et peut etre illegale. Si vous avez recu cette communication par erreur, veuillez aviser l'expediteur immediatement. Merci. You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.