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I strongly recommend Michael's article -
[http://epc2010.princeton.edu/abstractViewer.aspx?submissionId=100690]
I have read it quickly and will soon be looking at it again (but then, I know nothing about demography).

I generally like percentiles rather than Pearsonian moments: so why do we not use L50, the median of life-lengths, rather than the expectancy, which is highly sensitive to extremes including infant mortality, centenarians and data-errors? If I had L10 and L90, that would have more meaning for me. (This is separate from the question whether when comparing different areas, one should go for the extremes or a percentile: again, for me the 10th and 90th percentiles would be more interesting than the extremes.)

I agree with Jane that this could be a suitable topic for the Newsletter. But something more class-based would also be interesting: can we compare L10 and L90 for those at Y10 and Y90, the 10th and 90th percentiles of the income-distribution? Thinking more abstractly we have P(L,Y) which is the probability that somebody at the Y-th income percentile expires at age L. What shape is this curve, and how is it best summarised?

Sorry, I prefer posing questions rather than providing answers.

JOHN BIBBY





On 10 November 2010 10:27, Michael Grayer <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
As John said: concentrating on extremes is not really helpful. The
methodology used to calculate life expectancy (at least the ones used by
ONS
[http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_other/GSSMethodology_No_33.pdf] and the health observatories [http://www.sepho.org.uk/download.aspx?urlid=9847&amp;urlt=1]) for such small areas introduces quite a few artefacts into the estimates. These predominantly manifest themselves in the form of over-estimates, because there is no upper bound placed on the length of survival in the final age group. I wrote a conference paper on this about a year ago which I hope to have published---you can read the conference proceedings version of it online [http://epc2010.princeton.edu/abstractViewer.aspx?submissionId=100690]. There probably is a real, substantive gap in life expectancy, but 16.8 years is most likely an over-estimate. A more conservative estimate would be provided by taking the inter-quartile range, or some other measure which drops the outliers.

As for smaller areas, well, we'd all love to have them, but much smaller
scale than the ward-level and the numbers become so tiny that it really
is an exercise in getting blood out of a stone. After all, "life
expectancy" is a property of populations, not individuals, so a
reasonable level of aggregation has to be maintained for the figures to
be meaningful.

I hope this is helpful information.

Best wishes,
Michael.


On Wed, 2010-11-10 at 08:56 +0000, Martin Rathfelder wrote:
> I know about these thank you.  What I want are ward level stats. Or
> smaller, I suppose, but the small area stats I have seen were very
> difficult to use because they didn't relate to any identifiable places.
>
> On 10/11/10 08:39, Potter, Lesley wrote:
> > http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8841
> >
> > There is a collection of resources on life expectancy here, produced by
> > the Office for National Statistics,
> > Hope this is helpful,
> > Lesley
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> > On Behalf Of Martin Rathfelder
> > Sent: 10 November 2010 08:32
> > To: [log in to unmask]
> > Subject: Health inequality:
> >
> > There is, according to the local PCT, a 16.8 year gap in life expectancy
> >
> > experienced by female residents who live in the Macclesfield Town
> > Tytherington area compared to those living in Crewe's Central and Valley
> >
> > area
> >
> > This sort of local inforamtion is very useful politically.  Does anyone
> > know of, or is anyone capable of producing, a convenient useful source
> > of such stuff?  Ideally showing the most extreme disparities in close
> > proximity.
> >
> > I presume that the smaller the areas the greater the disparities.  The
> > DPH in Huddersfield used to produce some good graphs showing the
> > contrasts between the two sides of the same road.
> >
> > Martin Rathfelder
> > Director
> > Socialist Health Association
> > 22 Blair Road
> > Manchester
> > M16 8NS
> > 0161 286 1926
> > www.sochealth.co.uk
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> --
> Martin Rathfelder
> Director
> Socialist Health Association
> 22 Blair Road
> Manchester
> M16 8NS
> 0161 286 1926
> www.sochealth.co.uk
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