Will see if our group has similar properties
Alistair


From: GP-UK [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Roger Gardiner
Sent: 11 October 2010 08:24
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: Analysis of referrals

Sure

First a quick explanation of why the graph is unexpected:

If you eliminate unnecesarry referrals (e.g. by using a referral management centre) then they should form a lower proportion of the total spend - this is because referrals only affect certain elements in expenditure (prescribing, community, A/E etc. should not be affected) so the total spend does not fall in parallel.
 
For example: a 50% drop in referrals may only lead to a 20% drop in overall costs. if referrals drop from £10 to £5 and the total spend drops from say £100 to £80 then New OP costs/total expenditure will drop from 10/100 or 10% to 5/80 or 6.25%. --- that's the theory.
 
If you look at the graph you'll see the reverse ---- it fairly scattered but the trend is that an increasing % spent on new out-patients leads to a fall in total expenditure ----  it certainly doesn't show the reduction in spend/patient we've all been told.


Roger


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