 |
 |
COMPLEXITY AND STATISTICS: TIPPING POINTS AND CRASHES A Royal Statistical Society meeting sponsored by Industrial Mathematics Knowledge Transfer Network and Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Judge Business School Date: 11am - 5pm Friday 22nd October 2010 Registration from 10:30am Venue: Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London, EC1Y 8LX. Summary: There is much interest in the possibility of detecting and predicting critical changes in complex systems. Climate tipping points, earthquakes and financial crashes are three examples. A variety of techniques for tackling these challenges are being developed by physicists, mathematicians and statisticians, but their success is still a matter for debate. This meeting brings together researchers and practitioners from several disciplines to present and discuss their ideas about this important topic, and aims to stimulate further interest and advances in the field. Full details are available at http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1321&event=1186 Speakers: DIDIER SORNETTE (ETH Zurich) Parallels between earthquake prediction, financial crash prediction and epileptic seizures predictions MICHAEL THOMPSON (University of Cambridge/University College London) and JAN SIEBER (University of Portsmouth) Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique CLAUDIE BEAULIEU (Princeton University) Change point detection using the informational approach with applications in atmospheric sciences VALERIE LIVINA and TIM LENTON (University of East Anglia) Applying degenerate fingerprinting in studying climate tipping points COSMA SHALIZI (Carnegie Mellon University/Santa Fe Institute) Markovian, predictive, and conceivably causal representations of stochastic processes Registration: You need not be a member of the Royal Statistical Society to attend, but registration is required via the web form that will soon be available from: http://www.rss.org.uk/environmental Twenty free places for Retired/Student Fellows are available courtesy of the meeting sponsors and will be allocated on a first-come, first-served basis. Otherwise, registration fees, which cover lunch and refreshments, are as follows: Retired/Student Fellows £18 - with 20 free places allocated on a first come first serve basis CStat/GradStat £18 Fellows £20 Members £25 Non-members £30 Programme: 10:30 Registration and Refreshments 11:00 Welcome 11:15 Didier Sornette 12:00 Michael Thompson and Jan Sieber 12:45 Lunch 13:45 Claudie Beaulieu 14:30 Valerie Livina 15:15 Refreshments 15:45 Cosma Shalizi 16:30 Panel discussion 17:00 Close Directions:<_http://www.rss.org.uk/pdf/RSSMap.pdf_> Further details are available on the Environmental Statistics Section website <https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/filearea.cgi?LMGT1=envstat&a=get&f=/index.html> The meeting organisers are Chris Ferro (University of Exeter) and Nick Watkins (British Antarctic Survey). For further details, please visit <_http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/files/envstat/index.html_> or contact Chris Ferro <[log in to unmask]>. Sponsors links: Industrial Mathematics Knowledge Transfer Network _https://ktn.innovateuk.org/web/mathsktn_ Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Judge Business School _http://www.risk.jbs.cam.ac.uk/_ -- *********************************************************** Richard Wilkinson Lecturer in Statistics School of Mathematical Sciences University of Nottingham Nottingham, NG7 2RD [log in to unmask] http://www.maths.nottingham.ac.uk/personal/pmzrdw/ *********************************************************** This message and any attachment are intended solely for the addressee and may contain confidential information. If you have received this message in error, please send it back to me, and immediately delete it. Please do not use, copy or disclose the information contained in this message or in any attachment. Any views or opinions expressed by the author of this email do not necessarily reflect the views of the University of Nottingham. This message has been checked for viruses but the contents of an attachment may still contain software viruses which could damage your computer system: you are advised to perform your own checks. Email communications with the University of Nottingham may be monitored as permitted by UK legislation. You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.