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On 9/21/2010 3:53 PM, Ernesto Barrera wrote: > I have known a data mining software that calculates predictive models > without much statistical knowledge. I wonder if the automatic > incorporation of predictive models to computerized medical records, > patient risk modeling based on regional or local data could be a future. > In that case, could we say that we move towards a model of 7S > (predictive Statistics) in the pyramid of evidence? > > I appreciate your views on this subject. I know a videotape that you can watch that will allow you to perform surgery without much knowledge of anatomy. How well do you think that would work? Predictive models based on computerized medical records are a laudable goal, but only if they incorporate the appropriate statistical expertise. Maybe it will change in a decade or two, but today's computers are not smart enough yet to dispense with expert knowledge. Even an intelligently built predictive model based on medical records, though, will have serious limitations. Remember that medical records constitute observational data, and suffer all the limitations of observational data. Full disclosure: I am a professional statistician who will be put out of work as soon as the computers get smart enough that they can build good predictive models without much statistical knowledge. -- Steve Simon, Standard Disclaimer Sign up for The Monthly Mean, the newsletter that dares to call itself "average" at www.pmean.com/news