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Mann is not the only one to have found a hockey stick - lots of other climate researchers have Chris On 14/07/2010 22:02, Alastair McIntosh wrote: > Dear Crisis Forum Colleagues > I attach a Word file of a review that I have drafted for the Scottish > Review of Books of A.W. Montford's "The Hockey Stick Illusion." > As many of you will know, engaging with the contrarians is a fraught > business. I'm doing so on two fronts at the moment - one with Peter > Taylor on the ECOS website and the other, in this opinion of Montford. > Before I submit what I've drafted, I'd be grateful for any comments > that any of you might have. I found myself moderately sympathetic to > Montford as I read the book, but once I checked out the storyline he > was advancing, that sympathy collapsed ... but I am concerned to try > and not be unfair in what I say here hence why your comments as > informal peer review, so to speak, would be welcome. > Please treat this as being confidential to the Crisis-Forum community > at this stage. > Talking of peer review, one issue I'd have liked to have discussed but > there is not space in the 700 words I've got is how the process is, in > reality, more robust than those not involved, such as Montford, > imagine from the cursory nature of some reviewer comments. A good > scholar gets a feel for their field. It happens not just in reading > articles, but in meeting people and discussing at conferences etc.. An > experienced scholar may therefore not need many words to endorse or > pull apart an article. It's a bit like teaching. The experienced > teacher can get away with writing a very short student report (and > then get on with other work) in a way that a junior teacher can't, > because they have to spell it out rather than rely on internal shorthand. > I mention that point just because it might resonate with some of you, > but it is too abstruse to take up space in a general review article. > Alastair. > > *Review by Alastair McIntosh for the Scottish Review of Books* > > * * > > */ /* > > */The Hockey Stick Illusion/, A.W. Montford, Stacey International, 2010, * > > *ISBN 978-1-906768-35-5, £10.99, 482pp.* > > The "hockey stick" is a graph that suggests the Earth's temperature > was relatively constant for the past thousand years but then, like a > hockey stick's blade, rises sharply from about 1900. > > To the vast majority of climate scientists this suggests that the rate > at which we're burning coal and oil is putting the planet at risk. But > according to A.W. Montford in this "definitive exposé" of one part of > the science, it's just not true. > > The captain of Montford's "Hockey Team" is the renowned American > climatologist Michael Mann. Montford charts out the web that connects > him to forty-two other scientists - sinister "links of co-authorship" > where "each clique is largely self-contained" (p.254). > > The Team conspires to keep Mann's hockey stick shaped the way it is -- > flat then rising sharply. This requires weeding from the data evidence > of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) -- an era of Vikings in Greenland > and grape-growing in England that lasted some 300 years until 1250. > > According to Montford "the flatter the representation ... the scarier > were the conclusions" (p. 27). If the MWP is not filtered out the > hockey stick goes U-shaped. That would hint that maybe today's global > warming could, like the MWP, be down to natural causes. Maybe we don't > need to cut greenhouse gas emissions because they're not the problem! > > Montford's main case is that Mann's cronies have covered him as he > cherry-picked and statistically steamrollered his data that used > tree-rings to estimate past planetary temperatures. Leaked East Anglia > emails clinch the case. The bottom line is that the UN's > Intergovernmental Panel on Climate has "proven itself to be corrupt, > biased and beset by conflicts of interest.... There is no conceivable > way that politicians can justify this failing to their electorates. > They have no choice but to start again" (pp. 390-1). > > So much for Montford's take on Mann and the IPCC. But who is Montford, > and what are his seemingly persuasive sources? > > Andrew Montford gained a BSc degree in chemistry from St Andrews and > then became a chartered accountant. His claim to fame is as the > pseudonymous blogger, /Bishop Hill/ - "the dissentient afflicted with > the malady of thought." > > In the book's preface he describes how he learned about climate > science from the blog /Climate Audit /-- the work of Canadian mining > engineer Steve McIntyre. Montford says: "While some of the statistics > was (sic) over my head ... I wondered if my newly-found understanding > of the debate would enable me to take on ... a public duty to make the > story more widely known." > > He was rapidly rewarded. Posting a summary to /Bishop Hill / "briefly > turned my sleepy and relatively obscure website ... into a hive of > activity, with thirty thousand hits being received over the following > three days ... saying nice things about what I had written [and] even > an attempt to use my article as a source document for Wikipedia" (pp. > 13-14). > > But according to the Wall Street Journal, McIntyre and his cronies are > themselves under fire. A German review revealed "a glitch" in Mann's > work (and Mann has conceded as much), but it "found this glitch to be > of very minor significance." Another study, this time from the Woods > Hole Oceanographic Institution, concluded that McIntyre had overplayed > his hand: "The truth is somewhere in between, but closer to Dr. Mann." > Mann's own university recently completed a review that exonerated him, > not necessarily of error, but of "any wrongdoing". > > Montford's book is a classic case of the terrier worrying the bull. > There is no comparison in their intellectual weight. In contrast to > Mann having published more than a hundred relevant contributions to > scholarly journals, McIntyre has produced three and Montford, nil. > > Even if Mann were guilty as charged the hockey stick rests on far more > than his work alone. In particular, the MWP is largely a red herring. > Its warming effect was most likely regional, not global. There is > little serious scientific doubt about the hockey stick's validity. > > Like most climate change contrarians, Montford writes to persuade an > audience that wants to be persuaded. Laying out a seemingly black and > white case may flatter the prejudices of some readers. It will serve > the psychological needs of those who can't face their own complicity > in climate change. > > But at the end of the day, this book is what it says it is: a write-up > of somebody else's blog. Could it be that the author over-rates the > forensic utility of his narrowly-informed approach? One has to ask if > it amounts to any more than an intellectual conceit. > > /Alastair McIntosh of the Centre for Human Ecology is a visiting > professor at Strathclyde University and author of Hell and High Water: > Climate Change, Hope and the Human Condition. / > > / / > > *References: Not for publication -- for my source back-up only, > accessed 14-7-10* > > Mann's home page with publications list: > http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html > <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html> > > New Scientist -- Hockey Stick not proved wrong: > http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11646-climate-myths-the-hockey-stick-graph-has-been-proven-wrong.html > > > Wall Street Journal -- heat on Mann's critics and 2 studies of Mann: > http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB113027943843479277-5reMaU4_37mSf3Us8BhDeHITDyA_20061026.html?mod=blogs, > > Medieval warming was regional: > http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11644-climate-myths-it-was-warmer-during-the-medieval-period-with-vineyards-in-england.html > > American Chemical Society's Environmental News -- on McIntyre's rise > to fame (pp. 5-6) - http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es053378b > > Guardian on Mann cleared of science fraud: > http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jul/02/michael-mann-cleared > > Penn State Uni announcement on Mann being cleared: > http://www.research.psu.edu/news/2010/michael-mann-decision > > Penn State Uni full report into Mann: > http://live.psu.edu/fullimg/userpics/10026/Final_Investigation_Report.pdf > > Virginia Attorney pursues Mann: > http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/07/the_university_of_virginia_hol.html > > > Union of Concerned Scientists etc. challenges Attorney's attack on > Mann: > http://hamptonroads.com/2010/05/academics-fight-cuccinellis-call-climatechange-records > > > Uni of Virginia defends Attorney's attack on Mann -- academic freedom > - > http://www2.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/local/education/article/uva_fights_inquiry_by_cuccinelli/56663/ > > > See Wikipedia -- not the main entries, but the "Discussion" or "Talk" > sections where editors debate what is acceptable in entries -- under > Mann, McIntyre, Montford and Hockey Stick Controversy. > > > > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG - www.avg.com > Version: 9.0.830 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3005 - Release Date: 07/14/10 19:36:00 >