Re: [PSCI-COM] Reporting Science

Jonathan,

Please don't take personally the confrontational response from Mike Kenward OBE. That goes for anybody else on this list who is feeling nervous about contributing to psci-com after being savaged by MK - he behaves like a Rottweiler on a couple of e-mail discussion lists, but his grouchy bark is far worse than his bite! I think his rude responses are intended to provoke debate rather than to cow people into saying nothing.

Your original posting prompted an interesting discussion about the way the volcanic ash story was protaryed by the media and I don't think I am alone among psci-commers in appreciating your contribution.

Bob Ward

Policy and Communications Director
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
London School of Economics and Political Science
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE

http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham

Tel. +44 (0) 20 7106 1236
Mob. +44 (0) 7811 320346

From: psci-com: on public engagement with science [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Osborne, Jonathan
Sent: 27 April 2010 19:02
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [PSCI-COM] Reporting Science

I posted this originally as I saw the issue in these two stories is the contrast between the erroneous notion that scientific models should be ‘facts’ and absolutely certain and the reality that all models are assessed against a balance of probabilities and the less data you have, the more uncertain you are about the probabilities which makes decision making (as required by the public, airlines etc) a risk assessment exercise. I pointed it out because it is a good instance of where media reporting of science demonstrates a confusion about the nature of epistemic justification in science sustaining naïve notions about its nature.

Jonathan Osborne

On 24/04/2010 02:56, "Michael Kenward" <[log in to unmask]">[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Can someone explain to me how these two stories are supposed to be related? Apart from being about volcanoes that is.

The Telegraph is reporting on a group of harrumphing airline chiefs.

The academic is talking about predicting what will happen when a volcano blow its top.

The Telegraph does not mention the Stanford work, so it can hardly be accused of reporting it erroneously.

The Telegraph is not “science as it is reported in the media”. It is about the jockeying to prepare for attempts to get us to pay next year’s bonus for Willie Walsh and his fellow airline heads.

I would have thought that people where would welcome an newspaper article that tries to grapple with probability rather than certainty. Does the Telegraph come down one way or the other on whether this is a good or bad thing? It simply quotes someone.

By all means attack poor coverage of science in the media, but this example simply is not valid evidence one way or the other.

_______________________________
Michael Kenward OBE
Have words will travel

From: psci-com: on public engagement with science [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Osborne, Jonathan
Sent: 24 April 2010 07:01
To: [log in to unmask]">[log in to unmask]
Subject: [PSCI-COM] Reporting Science
Importance: High

You may be interested in the difference between science as it is reported in the media

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/7608722/Volcanic-ash-cloud-Met-Office-blamed-for-unnecessary-six-day-closure.html

And science as it is explained by a scientist

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2010/april/volcano-expert-airliners-042210.html

There is clearly still a long way to go.

Jonathan Osborne
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