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THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP PLEASE NOTE SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME Monday 10th May 2010 7:30 for 8:00 Amgen Ltd, Cambridge Science Park, Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 0WG Harmless Pastime or Serious Science? What does Phenology tell us about the Impacts of a Changing Climate? Tim Sparks Posnan University of Life Sciences Abstract: Phenology, the study of the timing of natural events, is a pastime with a considerable history. Once considered the harmless activity of a select few country gentlemen and clerics, is has now taken on a new importance since its value as (probably) the oldest written biological record has been recognised. Britain possesses a huge wealth of phenological data. Some of these are easily obtained, but much more resides in obscure and dusty journals, notebooks and diaries. In this talk I describe data from a range of historical and contemporary sources, demonstrate how these have responded to inter-annual variations in temperature and discuss the consequences of climate warming on the timing of our seasons. Speaker: Tim Sparks gained his statistical qualifications via the IoS route before taking masters degrees in Applied Statistics and in Operational Research followed by a PhD in Environmental Sciences. He worked at NIAB from 1978 to 1989, and at the Monks Wood Research Station from 1991 until its closure in 2009. He is currently a visiting professor with the Poznan University of Life Sciences and with the University of Liverpool, a research associate with the University of Cambridge and in June starts an association with the Technical University of Munich. Directions: Head north on Milton Road. Two traffic lights before the A14 turn left into the Science Park (clearly signposted). Turn left at the roundabout. The meeting takes place at Amgen in the restaurant in building 214 (the ground floor of the middle building on the map at http://imaging.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/statswiki/csdg/amgen). Parking is available on site. There will be no admittance after 8pm. Arrivals after 8pm can gain admittance by contacting the secretary on 07761769436. If anyone would like complementary transport to the talk venue from Central Cambridge please inform the secretary in advance of the meeting. Provisional Next Meeting: 19th October – Martin Gibson (Formerly EMC Europe, Director of Lean Six Sigma) on ‘The good, the bad and the ugly of Lean Six Sigma’. Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them. Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2009-2010 session. Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, 15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801; E-mail [log in to unmask] Take a look at our website: http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html -- ------------------------------------------- Peter Watson MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit 15 Chaucer Road Cambridge CB2 7EF http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/ Phone: DIRECT DIAL 1223 273712 +44 1223 355294 x801 Fax: + 44 1223 359062 You may leave the list at any time by sending the command SIGNOFF allstat to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.