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Royal Statistical Society Social Statistics Section 13 October 2009, 5.00pm, at the Royal Statistical Society (Tea from 4.30pm) Analysing Uncertainty David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University Statisticians try to face up to uncertainty, but this term has many subtle shades of meaning. The classical paradigm deals with variability in observable random quantities, while a Bayesian approach extends our range to include formal expressions of epistemic uncertainty about unknown states of the world. More controversial is the use of probability statements that measure what we believe about how the world works, for example in climate change modelling. However, it has been argued within the social sciences that all such quantitative approaches are rather restrictive and that more informal methods are needed to deal with the much deeper uncertainties and ambiguities in human affairs. I shall attempt to examine how well statistical methods deal with all these demands. Ian Plewis will chair the seminar. Attendance is free but pre-registration is recommended. You can register by email: [log in to unmask] or by phone (020) 7638 8998. For a map and directions see www.rss.org.uk/findus. We anticipate the seminar will finish at around 6pm. For further information contact Ian Plewis on [log in to unmask]