That is a fair point Chris, and one that has been much visited over the years. I turned off from activism because it all seemed so naive, ill-informed and completely middle -class, but I have a lot of respect for the climate camp movement.

 

Post-war activism seems to have made us in the North all equal under the iron heel of capitalism and done nothing to stem the tide of suffering in the South. I protested in every legal way in  the lead up to the Iraq war, been on countless climate change demos, done innumerable talks etc but for what? I no longer believe in the power of email, online petitions and placard waving to change the world. The game is rigged in the favour of the status quo and current political action on climate change doesn’t seem a meaningful threat to that situation.

 

 

 

 

This reminds me of something I read in Chris Rose's book 'How to win campaigns' about how academics were no good as campaigners because they wanted discussion not action.  Tom is quite right here - we have to get away from debating what is a safe limit to some kind of political action

Chris

Tom Barker wrote:

Christopher, you are right of course, but politicians and campaigns need a tangible target, and that is it, like it or not.  Nothing much about climate science is definite and quantifiable. A public target of 2 degrees is at least something to aim for initially. It can be refined later. The IPCC 0.9 degrees at 2100 seems to now be six times higher according to the latest figures. That is enough to focus on isn't it? We need the global agreement at Copenhagen along the lines of Contraction and Convergence or it won't matter what figure is chosen. I guess I fear another distraction caused by endless debate over the 'safe limit'. There is a safe limit, we just don't know either how to define 'safe' or where such a limit lies.

Cheers, Tom

At 10:40 07/07/2009, christopher shaw wrote:

The two degree limit is a statement of values. There is no scientific basis for saying 2 degs is dangerous. Science can predict probabilistic outcomes from particular emission scenarios (with very wide uncertainty intervals), but the definition of which scenario is dangerous is not science. I am of the opinion it is not possible to identify a global dangerous limit. None of the ambiguity and uncertainty about defining a safe limit is present in this campaign, and so I do not understand how it can be considered progressive or a useful contribution to the debate. It is more of the same fear of uncertainty and desire to manage the world  which underpinned the paradigms that have brought us to this juncture.
 
Let us pretend it is ‘acceptable’ ‘tolerable’ and ‘safe’ to warm the world to two degrees. What happens if natural warming trends follow the anthropogenic warming of the climate by two degrees? There is nothing I would call ‘safe’ about warming the world by two degrees.
 
From: Discussion list for the Crisis Forum [ mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Chris Keene
Sent: 06 July 2009 23:37
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: 2 degrees]
 


-------- Original Message --------

Subject:

[SPAM] 2 degrees

Date:

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:34:57 -0400

From:

Ben Wikler - Avaaz.org <[log in to unmask]>

To:

[log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>


Dear friends,
The G8's climate goal could be scrapped, as Canada, Russia, and Japan try to block a commitment to cap warming below 2 degrees. With street stunts and top-level meetings, Avaaz will bring a global voice to the summit in Italy, calling for climate action --

The world has just months left to agree on a binding global climate treaty -- humanity's best shot at preventing catastrophic global warming of more than 2 degrees celsius.

This week at the Italian-hosted G8 summit, Canada, Japan, and Russia are trying to veto the 2-degree limit -- and an immediate global outcry is needed to rescue it.

Click below to sign the worldwide petition -- an Avaaz team in Italy will deliver it directly to world leaders and through spectacular stunts on Thursday, bringing global media attention to shame the climate-wreckers and press them to back down. We urgently need at least 100,000 signatures -- click to sign:

http://www.avaaz.org/en/tcktcktck

Scientists say that if global warming rises past two degrees centigrade, the world's climate systems are very likely to spin out of control -- with searing droughts, sudden floods, and rising seas that spread poverty and force hundreds of millions to relocate.

In fact, such climate effects have already begun -- but we may be able to avert the worst, if urgent UN negotiations succeed this year in reaching a binding treaty. The UN talks, culminating in Copenhagen just six months from now, could launch a historic shift towards a clean-energy, green-recovery future that leaves the climate safe for future generations. But a few nations -- now led by Canada, Russia, and Japan -- have blocked-up the climate talks, endangering the treaty and our future.

The G8 leaders -- joined by eleven other heads of government at a parallel "Major Economies" meeting next door -- represent more than 80% of climate emissions. And this is the leaders' last in-person negotiation before the make-or-break Copenhagen summit.

We know last-moment pressure can change their policies: Avaaz members and other citizen groups flipped Canada's and Japan's position in the closing hours of the Bali UN climate summit in 2007, and campaigners won promises to double aid to Africa at the Gleneagles G8 meeting in 2005. (Of course, Italy's Berlusconi and others have betrayed those promises -- a reminder that we must insist on a legally binding treaty on climate.) Canada's Harper, Japan's Aso, and other leaders could face elections in coming weeks and months -- they can't afford global embarrassment at this summit. Sign the petition, send it to friends, and help rescue the climate target now:

http://www.avaaz.org/en/tcktcktck

>From time to time in history, the forces align that make possible a fundamental shift in the conduct of human affairs. This year could be such a time. If we seize this moment -- if we choose, this year, to remake our economies and rebuild our relationship to the fragile ecosystems that sustain us -- we will leave our grandchildren a legacy etched in the burgeoning of glaciers and the currents of the sea.

Humanity's choice will be the sum of the decisions made by each of us, in our private lives and in our political actions. Together, let's choose the future.

With hope,

Ben, Taren, Iain, Alice W, Luis, Ricken, Pascal, Paula, Graziela, Paul, Brett, Milena, Margaret, Alice, Raluca, Raj, and the whole Avaaz team.


SOURCES

Italy G8 summit key to global efforts on climate change
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/05/content_11656977.htm

Background on 2 degrees threshold: "'Too late to avoid global warming,' say scientists" http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming-say-scientists-402800.html

Canada, Russia Considered Climate ‘Bad Boys’ Among G8 Nations
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aKecgoGFIH7Y

Make-or-break summit as G8 gamble on climate and economy http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25738096-36418,00.html

EU's Barroso seeks two degrees Celsius pact at G8
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-GreenBusiness/idUSTRE5653ON20090706

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