Dear Xingbao,

The BMS file which is written to disc contains all the results from the Bayesian model selection procedure.  For the random effects analysis, have a look at the structure BMS.DCM.rfx.  In this structure, you will find all results, e.g. “xp” is the exceedance probability for each model or “exp_r” is the expected posterior probability for each model.  If you search the list for BMS, you will find earlier comments by Maria who detailed all fields and their meaning in this file. 

Concerning your problem that SPM appears to freeze when you run the BMS procedure, is it possible that you are comparing a very large number of models or are using a very large number of subjects?  Because a sampling procedure is used for computing exceedance probabilities in the case of more than two models, this may take a long time.  You could speed this up by reducing the number of samples (currently we’re using a very generous number of one million samples).  You would have to change line 30 in the function spm_BMS. 

Best wishes,
Klaas




Von: "Li MD, Xingbao" <[log in to unmask]>
An: Klaas Enno Stephan <[log in to unmask]>
Gesendet: Montag, den 22. Juni 2009, 15:02:01 Uhr
Betreff: RE: DCM model selection

Thank you so much, Klaas. I re-read your 2009 paper which helps me lots in understanding BMS. I still have a basic questions on SPM 8. Within Batch Editor, select Stats--Bayesian Model Selection--BMS:DCM, select multiple subjects, each subject with 3 models, then select RFX for Inference Method and default for Long-evidence.  I successfully created BMS.mat and had a graph for Model Comparsion. How can I get  the BMS results (a number in Matlab Command Window, not just a graph)? When I tried to run Bayesian Model Selection---BMS:DCM(Result), the estimation procedure took much long time for running (it may freeze in process). Each time I have to click "Bye" to stop Results Window. No error message came out. Could you please point out a possible incorrect?
 
All the best,
Xingbao
 
 


From: Klaas Enno Stephan [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Thursday, June 18, 2009 3:32 PM
To: Li MD, Xingbao
Cc: [log in to unmask]
Subject: RE: DCM model selection

Dear Xingbao,

I do not think that you did anything incorrect in your analyses.  Results from Bayesian model selection can differ between SPM5 and SPM8 because they use different approximations for the log evidence.  BMS in SPM5 is based on AIC/BIC whereas in SPM8, BMS uses the negative free energy (F).  The critical difference between these approximations is how they define the complexity of a model.  For example, AIC/BIC only take into account the number of model parameters, regardless of the degree of interdependence amongst these parameters.  In contrast, F does consider such interdependencies (and has some other properties), which, in most instances, renders it a more appropriate measure of the complexity of a model.  For this reason, all model comparisons in SPM8, whether for DCM or other applications, now use F.  (For a full discussion of the relative advantages of F and AIC/BIC see our recent random effects BMS paper).

Because of these differences in defining complexity, BMS results can differ when using SPM8 versus SPM5.  This is not necessarily the case (for my interhemispheric model, for example, the model rankings are identical for F and AIC/BIC), but it is possible.  As long as you clearly describe which approximation you have used, you can use either F or AIC/BIC; the informed reader will then know what assumptions your BMS procedure is based on.  And concerning your final question: yes, of course, you can still cite the older DCM papers that used AIC/BIC. 

All the best,
Klaas




Von: "Li MD, Xingbao" <[log in to unmask]>
An: "[log in to unmask]" <[log in to unmask]>
Gesendet: Dienstag, den 16. Juni 2009, 21:20:04 Uhr
Betreff: DCM model selection

Dear Dr. Stephan,

You wrote an email on Feb 16, 2009 regarding the Bayesian model selection tool in SPM8. "  All model comparisons now use the negative free energy (F) as an approximation to the log evidence; the use of AIC/BIC has been abandoned.  The results of the model comparison are described in a "BMS.mat" file that is written to disk." Do you mean that SPM5 is not available to do BMS? Can I still cite these paper from SPM5 (Stephan 2007, J of Neuroscience).
One data set with 3 models was run with SPM 5 (compare Model) and SPM8 (Batch) respectively. The results puzzled me. Could you please help me to understand the results? Why  they are different? If I am wrong, can you advise where I did incorrectly. (see attached results)

Best regards,


Xingbao Li, MD
Assistant Professor
Brain Stimulation Laboratory
Institute of Psychiatry
Medical University of South Carolina
67 President Street, room 504 North
PO Box 250861
Charleston, SC 29425 USA
Phone: 1 (843) 792 5729
Fax: 1 (843) 792 5702
email: [log in to unmask]
www.musc.edu/fnrd/tms.htm