& in case anyone else is still listening for the promised sound of a second shoe dropping or hand clapping in the south china sea

albeit only a day or hour in the eyes of mother earth

i can report several arresting new blips

from the trycountry listening post here on blue hill bay

perhaps a light rain of both shoedrops & handclaps

as if to underscore its new threat

beijing immediately anted up another vessel

manila at least took trembling notice of the warning that previously only delhi & us chickens here had previously read

into or at the chinese foreign ministry website

& this appears to have caused washington to come running over

so as to at least clear its throat again of spratlys

& thus implicitly raise the ante or call beijings bluff

also of some interest in this connection

but by day 25 beijing saw the raise

or may even have quietly upped the stakes altogether

by suddenly enforcing its traditional environmental fishing ban in vietnamese seas more officiously & viciously than ever

tho this too has gone largely under the radar & ho hum

probably because north korea has been doing something similar to chinese crab fishermen at the same time

but it is poignant to see china socking it to vietnam like this

it may also be because hanoi too had been teaming up strategically with washington lately

& since day 20 with seoul too

per priveleged intel at

South Korea, Vietnam: A Deal to Explore Contested Waters

June 2, 2009 | 1951 GMT

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (L) arrives at the Jeju International Airport on May 31

LEE JIN-MAN/AFP/Getty Images

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (L) arrives at Jeju International Airport on May 31

Summary

South Korea and Vietnam have agreed to jointly explore the South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam. While Seoul is pursuing natural resources, markets and investment opportunities, Vietnam will likely use the agreement to strengthen territorial claims in contested waters as well as develop a sea-based economy. Whatever its intent, the agreement could place Seoul squarely in the middle of ongoing multinational disputes.

Analysis

On the sidelines of the South Korea-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on South Korea’s Jeju Island June 2, South Korea and Vietnam agreed to jointly explore the South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam for mineral resources. The agreement reflects South Korea’s expanding resource-exploration efforts in Southeast Asia as well as the growing interest among various territorial claimants to explore the South China Sea floor.

The South Korea-ASEAN summit focused heavily on trade and cooperation between South Korea and each of the 10 ASEAN-member states. Seoul pushed for eased restrictions on investments in mineral and energy resources and infrastructure development in the ASEAN states, which called for Seoul to increase its investment in the region after a nearly 50 percent decline in the second half of 2008. Seoul also offered to assist Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore in protecting the Strait of Malacca from piracy, suggesting a more active political role for Seoul in the region. This couples with Seoul’s economic and strategic needs, looking to ASEAN states as sources of raw materials as markets and as investment opportunities, while also recognizing potential threats to South Korea’s strategic supply lines from the Middle East through the South China Sea.

With Vietnam, the South Korean government agreed to expand cooperation and production at on-shore oil and gas blocks in Vietnam operated in part by South Korean firms and offered to help protect the natural environment around the energy and mining operations. In return, Seoul asked Hanoi to reduce environmental taxes on those operations and to buy South Korean nuclear reactors as part of Vietnam’s energy development plan. In addition, the Korean Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources and the recently inaugurated Vietnam Administration for Seas and Islands agreed to the joint exploration of seabed resources in the South China Sea.

Map: Competing claims in waters near China

South Korea’s agreement to assist Vietnam in exploring its claimed seabed could drop Seoul squarely in the middle of ongoing multinational disputes over the South China Sea. Vietnam is one of several competing claimants to parts or all of the Spratly Islands and controls the Paracel Islands, which China claims (calling them the Xisha Islands). In May, less than a year after Hanoi inaugurated the Administration for Seas and Islands, China launched the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs to deal with competing claims in the South and East China seas.

Around the same time, as a U.N. deadline regarding maritime territorial claims approached, Vietnam and Malaysia filed a joint claim with the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to expand their sovereignty beyond their 200 nautical-mile limits, prompting Beijing to quickly respond that China had “indisputable” sovereignty over the territory claimed by Vietnam and Malaysia. The Vietnamese and Malaysian prime ministers reaffirmed their cooperation and agreements on maritime claims during the June 2 Cheju summit.

Exploration of undersea resources is one way to strengthen a territorial claim, so Vietnam may be using the joint project not only as part of its initiative to develop a sea-based economy but also to bolster its claims against Chinese counters. Thus far, Seoul has avoided taking sides in the disputes. By working with Hanoi, however, it may find itself quickly drawn into the contentious geopolitics of the South China Sea, at the very time that the claimants — particularly China — are growing more active and assertive in pursuing their own claims.

but this morning at least

everything seems to have quieted down a bit

happily

-----------------------------------------

original messages last month

this morning i see the bbc has also begun to pick up on it

but only goes so far as to say

the clcs looks set to pit china against the neighbors

& the cfr morning brief

then softens this into

the clcs appears set to create tensions between china & the neighbors

the remaining small or large gap in perception must be owing either to my overexcitability

or to the fact that the original warning was written yesterday only in chinese

& so was perhaps only meant for domestic consumption if not as a trial balloon

& yet was then picked up internationally by devoted china watchers in india

but has been received beyond there

only with incomprehension disbelief or puzzlement

so perhaps we are yet to hear another shoe drop

or have only heard the sound of one hand clapping

In addition to the message which was posted yesterday, it may be of interest to know there is a note of the PRC in reaction to the submissions of Vietnam and Vietnam and Malyasia at the CLCS site

and a reaction of Vietnam

_______________________________________________
Alex G. Oude Elferink
Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea (NILOS)
School of Law
Utrecht University
Achter Sint Pieter 200
3512 HT Utrecht
The Netherlands
European Union
tel: .. 31 (0)30 2537033
fax: .. 31 (0)30 2537073
email: [log in to unmask]
_______________________________________________

Van: International boundaries discussion list [mailto:[log in to unmask]] Namens aletheia kallos
Verzonden: dinsdag 12 mei 2009 21:06
Aan: [log in to unmask]
Onderwerp: unclos deadline appears to roil south china sea

little noticed in todays news

under cover of unclos deadline commotion

China tells neighbours to keep off disputed islands

Tue May 12, 2009 9:58am IST

Email | Print |

| Single Page

BEIJING, May 12 (Reuters) - China has warned neighbours to stay off disputed islands in the South China Sea, telling the United Nations it holds "indisputable sovereignty" over the waters that are an arena for rising regional tension.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said his government made a submission to the United Nations asserting that Beijing will not tolerate other countries claiming the islands, which lie near vital shipping lanes and which some believe may be rich in oil and gas.

"China possesses indisputable sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the South China Sea islands and their near seas," Ma said in the statement put on the Ministry's website (www.mfa.gov.cn) late on Monday.

"China will continue protecting its maritime rights and interests based on its consistent position and stance," said Ma, adding that Beijing was open to negotiations on sea boundaries.

Ma's statement marked no change in China's general stance on the islands, including what Beijing calls the Nansha and Xisha islands, also called the Spratly and Paracel islands.

But alongside recent rival statements about the islands, Beijing's actions underscore the growing tensions over the strategically important seas.

The Spratlys are claimed by China and, in full or in part, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.

The U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf is taking submissions in an effort to clarify the outer limits of states' sea claims when the continental shelf -- one marker used for such claims -- extends more than 200 nautical miles beyond a baseline, such as their coasts.

Often these claims overlap and clash with other maritime claims.

Vietnam has also recently pressed its claims over the South China Sea islands and in March the Philippines signed a law laying claim to part of the Spratlys. In March, too, Malaysia's prime minister landed on parts of the Spratly archipelago to assert his country's claim.

The South China Sea is the shortest route between the Pacific and Indian oceans, and has some of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

Chinese ships have also recently jostled U.S. navy ships in waters of its coast, warning Washington not to operate vessels in the seas Beijing says are part of its exclusive zone.

May 12, 2009 | 1454 GMT

Navy Soldiers Guard Battleship at Qingdao Port, China on April 22

Guang Niu/Pool/Getty Images

Members of China’s navy guard the frigate Wenzhou at Qingdao port in Shandong province on April 22

Summary

In response to evolving economic conditions, growing international involvement and anticipated legal battles over control of several contested island groups and reefs in the South China Sea, Beijing has established a Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs, enhanced the capabilities and number of patrols by the Fisheries Administration Bureau and planned shifts in the disposition of its naval forces. China’s more aggressive attempts to assert its sovereignty in the South China Sea will lead to increased friction with its neighbors and the United States — something that could easily escalate if there are miscalculations or accidents at sea.

Analysis

As part of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), for states that joined the UNCLOS by 1999, May 13 is the deadline to submit to the U.N. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) supplementary claims to economic rights beyond the standard limit of 200 nautical miles. At stake is access to subsea mineral and energy resources, rights to fisheries and influence over maritime boundaries and activity. In the South China Sea, competing claims for sovereignty over various island and reef groups — including the Spratly Islands(called Nansha by China) and the Paracel Islands (called Xisha by China) — are shaped in part by China’s assertion of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.

While the Chinese have long claimed authority over the contested waters, changes in recent years in China’s international economic and political involvement, as well as anticipated formal challenges to China’s claims amid the ongoing U.N. process, have caused Beijing to accelerate actions reasserting its authority over the South China Sea. As China grows more active in establishing its authority in the region, it is likely to trigger more aggressive actions by its neighbors with competing claims, and increase friction with the United States — all of which may make maritime accidents and incidents more likely.

On March 10 — two days after a confrontation between Chinese patrol, fishing and intelligence collections vessels and the USNS Impeccable 75 miles south of China’s Hainan Island — the South China Sea Fisheries Administration Bureau, part of the Ministry of Agriculture, dispatched the China Yuzheng 311 on its maiden voyage. The ship, a 4,450-ton former navy support vessel, is China’s largest nonmilitary ocean surveillance vessel, and is tasked with patrolling the South China Sea to assert China’s claims to the territory. A second vessel, a 2,500-ton ship that will carry a helicopter, is expected to join the China Yuzheng 311 in 2010 as part of an expanding patrol operation in the South China Sea.

RELATED LINKS

In late March, The Chinese Foreign Ministry set up the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs, consolidating in a single department the responsibility for Chinese border disputes, competing territorial claims and joint development at sea (likely including projects like joint natural gas exploration with Japan in the East China Sea). The department, which began operations in April, will be headed by Ning Fukai, a Chinese diplomat who has worked in Chinese-Asian affairs for several decades, in recent years dealing primarily with the Korean Peninsula. Ning’s deputies are Wang Zonglai, who studied international law at Peking University and is considered an expert on maritime law, and Ouyang Yujing, who has been active in border negotiations and demarcations.

The focus on specialists rather than political appointments suggests that Beijing will continue trying to shape the regional understanding of the UNCLOS to fit its own interpretation — which includes limiting U.S. Navy research operations in the region. These research activities, by sea and air, are designed in large part to map out the undersea terrain and identify Chinese submarine operations, patterns and capabilities in waters that are vital not only to international shipping but also to U.S. Navy transit from the West Coast to the Indian Ocean and Middle East.

Map - East Asia - Chinese Navy Areas of Operation

In addition to increased fisheries patrols and greater legal efforts inside and outside the United Nations, Beijing is considering revising the distribution of ships among its three fleets. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) comprises three fleets: the North Sea (Beihai) Fleet, East Sea (Donghai) Fleet and South Sea (Nanhai) Fleet. The North Sea Fleet, headquartered in Qingdao in Shandong province, is responsible for operations from Shandong province to the Korean border, the Yellow Sea and maritime activity in Northeast Asia. The East Sea Fleet, with its headquarters in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, is responsible for operations from Jiangsu to Fujian province, the East China Sea and issues relating to Taiwan. The South Sea Fleet, with its headquarters in Zhanjiang, Guangdong province, covers Guangdong to the Vietnamese border and operations in the South China Sea.

Traditionally, the North Sea Fleet took precedence, serving to protect the Bohai Gulf and the old core of Chinese industrial power, as well as the approaches to Beijing. The East Sea Fleet, with responsibility for Taiwan, was also strong, though backed heavily by land-based assets including missiles and air power. As China’s economy began to expand and its international trade grew, Beijing began to shift additional attention to the South Sea Fleet in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

In recent years, this shift in attention has accelerated, and Beijing now is considering shifting its largest destroyers from the North Sea Fleet to the South Sea Fleet to allow for more active operations. In addition, while the North Sea Fleet is expected to become the home of the former Soviet carrier Varyag, which will be used as a training platform for Chinese carrier operation, new aircraft carriers China plans to build will be assigned to the South Sea Fleet, to allow more regular air patrol over the South China Sea. The South Sea Fleet will also be given greater responsibility for expanded operations, through the Strait of Malacca to the Indian Ocean and on to the African coastline.

Overall, China intends to take a more active approach, diplomatically and militarily, to assert its claims on the South China Sea in the coming years. This will include contesting competing claims in the United Nations, accelerating moves to create joint exploration and exploitation of various resources in the South and East China Seas to gain political backing in international forums, and wider-ranging and more-frequent patrols of the South China Sea. This latter point, in particular, has the potential to create additional friction in the area. Already this year, China has had several encounters with U.S. Navy vessels traversing or conducting research in the area. And these U.S. operations will only accelerate as China’s PLAN becomes more active, particularly with its submarine patrols.

The South China Sea is a shallow, contested and highly traversed body of water, and the area is going to become rather crowded quickly as the United States and China expand their naval activities and as other countries — from Japan to Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam or Indonesia, among others — also step up operations to keep an eye on the increasing activity. With the growing crowd, the chances for accidents, miscalculations and other unfortunate incidents also grow. And, as was seen in the 2001 collision between a Chinese Jian-8 and a U.S. EP-3E surveillance aircraft, such occurrences can quickly escalate from a local collision to an international security incident.

also happening today at

US, China naval talks

Admiral Robert Willard (left), commander of the Pacific Fleet, said there have been 'frank discussions' between high-level US officials and their counterparts in the People's Liberation Army. --PHOTO: AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

US AND Chinese military officials are trying to defuse a dispute over the use of international waters off the coast of China that has led to four recent confrontations, a top US Navy commander said on Tuesday.

Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the Pacific Fleet, said there have been 'frank discussions' between high-level US officials and their counterparts in the People's Liberation Army over run-ins between Chinese vessels and US surveillance ships.

'The two nations have not seen eye to eye on this particular issue,' Admiral Willard said on the sidelines of a regional naval conference in Singapore. 'We're going to have to work our way through it ... so they don't continue to escalate.'

The incidents have involved Chinese-flagged fishing vessels maneuvering close to unarmed US ships crewed by civilians and used by the Pentagon to do underwater surveillance and submarine hunting missions.

The Pentagon said that earlier this month two Chinese fishing vessels came within 30 metres of the USNS Victorious as it was operating in international waters in the Yellow Sea.

China said the US ship violated international and Chinese laws by entering China's 'exclusive economic zone' without authorization.

Admiral Willard said the US ships would continue to navigate in the contested waters.

'The Chinese are very sensitive to their exclusive economic zones,' Admiral Willard said. 'The UN law of the sea permits military activity inside exclusive economic zones, and we'll continue to do that.'

In another incident in the South China Sea in March, the Chinese maneuvered vessels near Navy surveillance ships and sent aircraft to fly over them for several days. Several Chinese ships surrounded the USNS Impeccable, coming within 25 feet (8 metres) and strewing debris in its path, the Pentagon said.

'We interpret the legal aspect of international law differently,' Admiral Willard said. 'We're attempting to overcome the disagreement.' -- AP

cheers

South Korea, Vietnam: A Deal to Explore Contested Waters

China tells neighbours to keep off disputed islands

China: Beijing Strengthens its Claims in the South China Sea