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In a recent discussion among UK agent-based social modellers, I asked whether there has ever been a correct, publicly documented, model-based forecast of a policy impact. There are, of course, many such forecasts tested successfully on past data but none of us were able to produce a single example of a correct forecast of policy impact reported or documented prior to the implementation of the policy. Does anyone know of a correct, real-time, model-based, policy-impact forecast? Please include references to publications of the forecast prior to policy implementation or to some other evidence that the forecast preceded the impact. Many thanks in advance, Scott