I think we know that in depth testing of questions wording and sequencing to ensure that they collect the desired concepts is more the exception than the rule. We also know that interviewers do not always ask questions as worded. And that's in the context of a 'respectable' statistical agency. In opinion polls and the like, leading questions often seem deliberate. So I think Paul is making a valid point.
And yet the level of scrutiny required to be really certain you know what the numbers represent is impossible. So my inclination is to extend a certain level of trust to those collecting statistics, depending in large part on how up front they are about publishing relevant aspects of methodology, to do the right thing by testing questions and training and debriefing interviewers. The alternative would seem to be discarding the baby with the bathwater.
In solidarity,
Harry
-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Paul Bivand
Sent: Wednesday, 18 March 2009 20:58
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCIETIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTER (What is Stamp's Law?)
Can I just add to Harry's useful points - don't believe them until you've observed the interviews taking place (and tested the questions so you know what people answered rather than what was asked).
---------------------------------------------------------
Paul Bivand
Head of Analysis and Statistics
Direct Line: 020 7840 8335
Inclusion has a launched a new website, please visit: www.cesi.org.uk
Inclusion
3rd floor, 89 Albert Embankment, London SE1 7TP
Tel: 020 7582 7221
Fax: 020 7582 6391
Inclusion website: www.cesi.org.uk
Consider the environment - do you really need to print this email?
The contents of this e-mail and any attachment(s) are intended solely for the use of the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient please return the e-mail to the sender and delete from your mailbox.
The Centre for Economic & Social Inclusion is a company limited by guarantee. Registered in England & Wales number 2458694. Registered address: 89 Albert Embankment, London SE1 7TP
-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of FELDMAN,Harry
Sent: 17 March 2009 22:30
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCIETIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTER (What is Stamp's Law?)
That's a very useful 'law'. I don't know about India, but it seems not much has changed in Pakistan.
My 'law' is, 'Don't believe you know what a number means until you're read the definitions and explanatory notes. And don't believe them until you've read the questions and interviewers' instructions.'
In solidarity,
Harry
-----Original Message-----
From: email list for Radical Statistics [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Culbert, John
Sent: Wednesday, 18 March 2009 7:56
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCIETIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTER (What is Stamp's Law?)
Dear Martin
You wrote:
>Can someone tell us what Stamp's statistical law is? Google doesn't
seem to know about it.
Oh yes it does ;-)
If you search for "Stamp's Law" (including the quote marks and limiting the search to UK only) you get one link which deals with this - http://www.mybulgaria.info/modules.php?name=Wiki&title=Harold_Cox
However, searching the wider Web - unchecking UK - also gives one link some way down the first page of apparently irrelevant links - http://sci.tech-archive.net/Archive/sci.math/2007-10/msg03277.html
(The latter quotes a posting of Allan Reese on Allstats List which also quotes the same source).
Those interested can follow up the above links for detail - the nub I've quoted below, - however, my summary would be that the essence of (Josiah) Stamp's Law is that statistics are only as good as the data provided at the initial data collection stage.
*****
.... Josiah Stamp quotes it as an anecdote of Harold Cox (1859 - 1 May 1936, Liberal MP for Preston from 1906 to 1909. After working two years in India teaching mathematics he returned to England in
1887) who attributes it to a Judge. The colonialist/racist undertone is of the period. So "Stamp's" law only because he documented it.
"The individual source of the statistics may easily be the weakest link.
Harold Cox tells a story of his life as a young man in India. He quoted some statistics to a Judge, an Englishman, and a very good fellow. His friend said, "Cox, when you are a bit older, you will not quote Indian statistics with that assurance. The Government are very keen on amassing statistics - they collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But what you must never forget is that every one of these figures comes in the first place from the chowty dar [village watchman], who just puts down what he damn pleases."
Quoted from "Some Economic Factors in Modern Life" (King and Son, 1929; p.
258) by Sir Josiah Charles Stamp (1880 - 1941), British economist, statistician, director of the Bank of England and president of the Royal Statistical Society.
******
Thanks to Martin for reminding me I intended to find the meaning myself - and to Allan Reese for his posting on Allstat
Regards
John
John Culbert
Law & Social Sciences
Ext 3478
________________________________________
From: email list for Radical Statistics [[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Martin Rathfelder [[log in to unmask]]
Sent: 17 March 2009 20:00
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: WHY MORE EQUAL SOCIETIES ALMOST ALWAYS DO BETTER
Can someone tell us what Stamp's statistical law is? Google doesn't seem to know about it.
Martin Rathfelder (A level Pure maths with Statistics) Director Socialist Health Association
22 Blair Road
Manchester
M16 8NS
0870 013 0065
www.sochealth.co.uk
If you do not wish to be on our mailing list please let us know and we will remove you.
Allan Reese (Cefas) wrote:
> RM wrote:
> Kate Pickett's response made depressing reading - presumably the inability to read a graph and understand statistics extends to those 'high educated people' who run the economy?
>
> Have you ever doubted this? Not only do they not understand the methods and limitations, they don't want to! At times this may be an act. I suspect Tony Blair claiming he could hardly send an email was aimed at the "I'm just a regular bloke" level of non-elitism. Similarly, it appears almost all senior managers have a pathetic naïve faith that any data in "a database" is thereby rendered accurate, complete and secure. Every public IT project appears to replicate Stamp's statistical law.
>
> When teaching use of graphs, the exercise I set for students was to critique graphs using prompts such as:
> A) what does the graph *show* (lines, points, bars, areas) and what do these represent?
> B) is the interest in the absolute amounts (watch for bars with broken axes!) or the relative pattern?
> C) is there a stated message - in a caption, in the nearby text - or features to draw our intention to a feature or pattern in the data?
> D) apart from the stated message, what other information is implicit?
> (eg, scatterplot shows relationship, but also implicitly shows number
> of data points, spacing along axes)
> E) does the graph actually justify or support the stated message?
> F) could the graph be improved? ("Presentation quality" often just means bold and garish; I look for choices in the scaling and labelling of axes, aspect ratio to give appropriate emphasis to differences, highlighting with line styles, marking of points, etc).
>
> It's quite an eye-opener to see how many published graphs appear to be just as first produced. Would you like to see published papers that were first draft texts, never edited?
>
> Responding to Rachel, the problem in schools may be that graphs are taught in *maths*, and many pupils continue to have real difficulty relating "maths world" to the real world. At one level they can manipulate numbers as ciphers, but when they do that the numbers lose any external meaning.
>
> Personal comment - not an official view Allan
>
>
> ***********************************************************************************
> This email and any attachments are intended for the named recipient only. Its unauthorised use, distribution, disclosure, storage or copying is not permitted. If you have received it in error, please destroy all copies and notify the sender. In messages of a non-business nature, the views and opinions expressed are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the organisation from which it is sent. All emails may be subject to monitoring.
> ***********************************************************************************
>
> ******************************************************
> Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
> message will go only to the sender of this message.
> If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
> 'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
> to [log in to unmask]
> Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
> *******************************************************
>
>
>
>
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
Email has been scanned for viruses by Altman Technologies' email management service - www.altman.co.uk/emailsystems
Glasgow Caledonian University is a registered Scottish charity, number SC021474
Times Higher Education award winner 2008: outstanding international student support
http://www.gcal.ac.uk/news/pressoffice/releases/241008.html
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
Notice:
The information contained in this email message and any attached files may be confidential information, and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient any use, disclosure or copying of this email is unauthorised. If you received this email in error, please notify the DEEWR Service Desk by calling 1300 305 520 and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
Notice:
The information contained in this email message and any attached files may be confidential information, and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient any use, disclosure or copying of this email is unauthorised. If you received this email in error, please notify the DEEWR Service Desk by calling 1300 305 520 and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
******************************************************
Please note that if you press the 'Reply' button your
message will go only to the sender of this message.
If you want to reply to the whole list, use your mailer's
'Reply-to-All' button to send your message automatically
to [log in to unmask]
Disclaimer: The messages sent to this list are the views of the sender and cannot be assumed to be representative of the range of views held by subscribers to the Radical Statistics Group. To find out more about Radical Statistics and its aims and activities and read current and past issues of our newsletter you are invited to visit our web site www.radstats.org.uk.
*******************************************************
