----- Original Message -----
From: aletheia kallos <
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Date: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 6:14 pm
Subject: [INT-BOUNDARIES] re mini crisis or not
To:
[log in to unmask]> concurrent intel & analysis lifted from
>
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090309_china_u_s_naval_incident_and_wider_maritime_competition> generally agrees with & enlarges upon my previous comments
>
> China, U.S.: A Naval Incident and Wider Maritime Competition
> March 10, 2009 | 1041 GMT
>
> Summary
> Chinese vessels appear to be acting with increasing aggression
> toward a pair of U.S. ocean surveillance ships in the Yellow and
> South China seas. Though such aggression is not unprecedented,
> it is a departure from China’s behavior of recent years, and it
> could indicate rising maritime tensions among many of the
> region’s naval powers.
>
> Analysis
> Chinese sailing vessels have behaved with increasing aggression
> toward two U.S. ocean surveillance ships operating in the Yellow
> and South China seas. Though this recent behavior is not
> unprecedented, the U.S. 7th Fleet is characterizing it as a
> departure from normal interactions and the most aggressive
> behavior the fleet has seen from China in a long time. These
> aggressive moves might herald things to come as the maritime
> environment around China becomes increasingly active — and crowded.
>
> On March 4, the USNS Victorious (T-AGOS 19) had an encounter at
> night with a Chinese Bureau of Fisheries patrol vessel in the
> Yellow Sea. The USNS Impeccable (T-AGOS 23) was approached more
> aggressively in the South China Sea the next day, when a Chinese
> People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) frigate reportedly crossed
> the Impeccable’s bow at a range of about 100 yards, and the
> Impeccable was buzzed nearly a dozen times at low altitude by a
> Y-12, a Chinese-made twin-engine turbo prop. Reportedly, the
> ship was threatened verbally over bridge-to-bridge radio on
> March 7 as well.
>
> But it was the March 8 incident with the Impeccable that
> garnered the most attention. According to reports, a PLAN
> intelligence collection ship, a Bureau of Maritime Fisheries
> patrol vessel, a State Oceanographic Administration patrol
> vessel and two small Chinese-flagged trawlers were all involved
> in what the U.S. Navy has characterized as coordinated
> harassment of the Impeccable. Some of the ships were within 25
> feet of the Impeccable at one point and stopped in front of the
> U.S. ship so close that the crew executed an emergency all stop
> to avoid a collision.
>
> The Impeccable is an ocean surveillance ship, part of the
> Military Sealift Command, and is operated by a mixed crew of
> civilian and military personnel. Capable of deploying towed
> acoustic arrays, the U.S. ship was operating within 75 miles of
> Hainan Island, where a number of sensitive PLAN and other
> military activities are conducted (reportedly including the
> deployment of the PLAN’s next-generation nuclear-powered attack
> and ballistic missile submarines). China would at least be
> concerned about the United States refining its knowledge of the
> submarine operating environment, and likely felt compelled to
> assume that the Impeccable was conducting other surveillance and
> intelligence-gathering activities.
>
> This is not a new dynamic. It is the same basic dynamic that
> gave rise to the EP-3 Ares II incident in 2001, in which a
> Chinese aircraft collided with a U.S. signals intelligence
> aircraft, forcing the EP-3 to land at Hainan Island. Normally,
> these activities are routine, and both sides abide by
> internationally accepted or even unspoken sets of rules. But
> when one side chooses to escalate the situation, matters can
> quickly spiral out of control.
>
> Part of this is simply a matter of increased PLAN activity,
> characteristic of a larger shift in how Beijing employs its
> navy. But with the PLAN’s 60th anniversary approaching in April
> (a formal announcement about its plans for an aircraft carrier
> fleet is anticipated), and the impending return of its first
> squadron deployed to the coast of Somalia, the Chinese navy is
> undoubtedly feeling rather confident and accomplished these days.
>
> But internal tensions may also be at play. With the financial
> crisis in full swing, the PLAN may also be attempting to drum up
> incidents for budgetary purposes, to forestall major fiscal cuts
> to its accounts.
>
> More importantly, the March 8 incident is emblematic of broader
> maritime tensions in the East Asian sphere — and not just
> between China and the United States. Over the past several
> months, tensions over long-standing maritime territorial
> disputes have once again risen across the region. North Korea
> has once again declared that it does not abide by the Northern
> Limit Line, the maritime extension of the Demilitarized Zone in
> the West/Yellow Sea, warning that a clash with South Korean
> naval vessels patrolling the area could occur. Japan, meanwhile,
> has launched a 10-year seabed mapping and underwater resource
> prospecting program, triggering warnings from Seoul and Beijing
> not to use the operations to lay claim to the disputed
> Tokdo/Takeshima and Senkaku/Daiyoutai islands respectively. And
> China’s competing claims over islands in the South China Sea are
> also resurfacing, provoking counterclaims from the Philippines,
> Malaysia and Vietnam.
>
> In short, the waters around China are becoming more crowded and
> the mood increasingly contentious. The March 8 incident could
> herald increased volatility in the maritime environment — across
> the region — for years to come.
>
> also
> if i might conserve messages
> which are all inextricably intertwingled anyway
> special thanx to barbara for hailing me before the hague again
> re spratly islands etc
> with the following update i had til now sent only to victor
> imagining no one else cared
> & thinking not to bother all the rest of you with it
>
> it looks like malaysia has finally acted
> obliquely but demonstratively
> & has provoked taiwan into likewise belatedly joining china &
> vietnam
> in reacting to the philippine spratly baseline bill
> even as china moderates its tone & stance but ups the diplomacy
> the asean summit having passed by undramatically
>
> & no public acknowledgement at all yet from brunei btw
>
>
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/258739,taiwan-upholds-> claim-over-spratlys-after-malaysia-premiers-visit.html
>
http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Saturday/NewsBreak/20090307165945/Article/index_html>
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/news/news/view/20090306-> 192736/New-Chinese-envoy-arrives-in-RP
>
> also
> albeit less so
>
http://taiwanjournal.nat.gov.tw/ct.asp?CtNode=122&xItem=49115> yet not without reverberation
>
http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/7008-da-gets-> unwarranted-flak-.html
>
> hope it helps or at least entertains
>
> best
> a
>
>
>
>
>
>