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Maybe now is a good time to revisit Ted Trainer's books of the 1980s and 1990s, e.g. The Conserver Society, and his work since them: http://ssis.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/ They are still highly relevant. Tom At 11:12 30/03/2009, Torsten Mark Kowal wrote: >http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sanjay-khanna/pessimists-die-quickly-gu_b_177808.html > > ><http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sanjay-khanna/pessimists-die-quickly-gu_b_177808.html>"Pessimists >Die Quickly" (Gulp) > ><http://blog.wired.com/sterling/profile.html>Bruce Sterling, sci-fi >author, essayist, ><http://www.metropolismag.com/story/20090318/product-panic-2009>design >thinker, and one of the founders of cyberpunk, delivered a closing >keynote at the South by Southwest ><http://sxsw.com/interactive>Interactive Festival (a.k.a. SXSWi), >the jewel in the crown of U.S. grassroots tech bashes held annually >in Austin, Texas. > >He said, "In times of real trouble like today, pessimists die quickly." > >Sterling's pithy quote, picked up via Twitter >(<http://twitter.com/Mickipedia>Mickipedia), raises the salient >issue of what might constitute a meaningful optimism, given the >tectonic shifts that are undermining the world and the planet we know. > >"In times of real trouble like today." Scientists and economists >are prone to conservatism. According to the March emergency summit >in Copenhagen, Denmark, 2,500 climate experts agreed that climate >change might surpass the worst-case scenarios outlined in the 2007 >report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change >(IPCC). At the same event, ><http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/13/stern-attacks-politicians-climate-change>Sir >Nicholas Stern, economist and author of The Stern Review on the >Economics of Climate Change, said he had "underestimated the climate >crisis." As a writer, it's safe for me to go out on a limb and >project that climate change will continue to exceed worst-case >scenarios. Here's why: Scientists measuring the retreat of ice cover >in the Arctic and West Antarctic are discovering new mechanisms that >accelerate climate change almost every year. Furthermore, incomplete >climate models are also contributing to the pace of climate change >being continuously underestimated. > >Despite time running down on the climate front, the economic crisis, >not the climate crisis, remains at the center of government agendas >around the world. This is based on the premise that governments need >to reignite economic growth to recoup the trillions lost so they can >eventually get around to making climate change the priority. In the >midst of this, many governments want to institute a new Kyoto-style >cap-and-trade mechanism as a key part of mitigating climate change. >But as <http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html>James E. Hansen, >leading climate scientist and director of NASA's Goddard Institute >for Space Studies, has ><http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2009/20090226_WayAndMeans.pdf>pointed >out, "The worst thing about cap-and-trade, from a climate >standpoint, is that it will surely be inadequate to achieve the >sharp reduction of emissions that is needed. Thus cap-and-trade >would practically guarantee disastrous climate change for our >children and grandchildren." > >So, barring literal, Bible-style miracles, we're on direct course to >Disaster. Full. Steam. Ahead. > >"Pessimists die quickly." There are two kinds of pessimists: First, >there are those who are pessimistic about how things will unfold >(James Lovelock, 90, author of just-released ><http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2009/feb/21/james-lovelock-gaia-book-review>The >Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning, and The Revenge of Gaia: >Earth's Climate Crisis and the Fate of Humanity, is a pessimist of >this variety). Next, there are those who are pessimistic about human >nature. Hard evidence of accelerating climate change would behoove >us to eventually adopt a Lovelockian pessimism, but to remain >optimistic about our inherent goodness. Times of great turmoil and >struggle -- such as those implied by climatic and economic >disruption (food, ><http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=573&ArticleID=6101&l=en&t=long>water, >shelter, money, and reliable information would be in shorter supply) >-- demand that we awaken optimism. That optimism aids in survival >has been shown in refugee camps, among disaster survivors, among >those living in poverty, among the wrongfully imprisoned, heck, even >among tech entrepreneurs burning through cash and looking for exit >strategies. I concur with Lovelock that things aren't going to turn >out well from an economic, ecological, or climatic perspective. >Nevertheless, I believe we need to place trust in one another and >create community-based responses, whole or piecemeal, in the face of >constraints that are bound to grow over time. > >A few more thoughts: > >Wishful thinking turns all-too-readily into pessimism. When the >bubble of wishful thinking bursts, it transforms into pessimism. >Today, it represents increasingly wishful thinking to assert we can >do battle against the entire planet's climatic response to >industrial and agricultural activity. Why? Because the synergistic >effects of falling aquifers, melting ice sheets, receding glaciers, >declining biodiversity, a toxic atmosphere, and polluted rivers, >lakes, and oceans, are proving too awesome to address, in part >because pursuing wealth has historically been accorded more value >than safeguarding nature in the collective societal and corporate >imagination. Taking constructive action regardless of the outcome, >however, and avoiding being ruled by either fear or hope, could make >a difference: At minimum, working together would help us to envision >and build an ad hoc human network for mutual support. > >The twenty-first century will constrain choice. Given accelerating >climatic, economic, social, and technological change, the >twenty-first century will demonstrate the limits of human agency. >Severely limited choice and a destiny of hardship would be a massive >shock to those of us who have been inculcated to experience identity >and self worth through consumerism. The question is, what positive >steps can individuals and communities take before climate change >becomes distressingly tangible and before we're attuned to its >irrevocability? Under regimes of water shortages, extreme pollution, >climate catastrophes, and an economic Darwinism virtually >unimaginable 30 years ago, we would need to find the inner strength >to ><http://blog.makezine.com/archive/2009/02/easy_cheap_homeless_dome.html>go >DIY, ><http://www.facingthefuture.org/GlobalIssuesIntroduction/GlobalIssueResources/FoodWaterSecurity/tabid/243/Default.aspx>grow >food, forge community relationships, and share resources, such as >they are, so that kindness and generosity could touch as many people >as possible. > >Kindness matters. The twinned effect of a shrinking global economy >-- and a dawning realization that a future of climate chaos is real >-- would contribute to a mass psychology of fear, which represents a >fundamental threat to human kindness, the most important tool we >have for maintaining a social fabric. As it becomes clearer that >survivability, not sustainability, is all we'll be able to prepare >for, I believe a concerted effort to be actively kind with our >intelligence, our inventiveness, and our resources can help to build >a storehouse of community goodness that may well become our most >valuable asset. > > Tom Barker BSc, PhD SWIMMER (Institute for Sustainable Water, Integrated Management, and Ecosystem Research) Nicholson Building University of Liverpool Liverpool L69 3GP 0151 795 4646 [log in to unmask] See The Age of Stupid (at FACT, Liverpool, and elsewhere now) http://www.ageofstupid.net/ and support Contraction and Convergence - the global response to climate change <http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf>http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf